Nifty Faces Resistance at 25,600, Support at 25,300: Expiry Session Reflects Caution

The weekly expiry session ended on a cautious note for Indian markets, with the Nifty 50 declining modestly by 48.10 points to settle at 25,405.30. True to its expiry character, the session was marked by low volumes and heightened intraday volatility, with price action largely contained within the previous day’s range.

While the day’s movement didn’t signal any major reversal, three consecutive closes below prior highs now hint at emerging fatigue and possible short-term consolidation.

Nifty Shows Signs of Pause, Not Panic

Despite repeated failure to sustain higher levels due to persistent supply pressure, the overall trend remains intact. The short-term weakness observed seems more like time-wise consolidation rather than the onset of a deeper correction.

• The index continues to trade comfortably above its 10-day and 20-day EMAs, indicating that underlying demand is still present.
  
  
• Immediate support has been established around 25,300, a level that's being defended by bulls.
  
  
• On the upside, 25,500–25,600 has emerged as a key supply zone, reinforced by strong call writing activity.
  
  
• A decisive move above 25,600 could pave the way for a rally toward the psychological milestone of 26,000.
  
  
• Conversely, a breach below 25,300 could trigger short-term profit booking and drag the index toward 25,000.
  
  

Derivatives Snapshot: Sentiment Turns Guarded

Activity in the options segment reflects growing caution:

• Call writers have grown aggressive at higher levels, especially around the 25,500 strike, which now holds the highest open interest (64.88 lakh contracts)—making it a formidable resistance.
  
  
• Put writers are gradually scaling back exposure, suggesting declining confidence in strong support zones.
  
  
• The 25,000 put strike still holds 54.20 lakh contracts, reinforcing its importance as a strong base.
  
  
• The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has risen from 0.61 to 0.75, indicating a defensive stance and potential for range-bound or mildly corrective behavior.
  
  
• Max Pain has shifted to 25,450, suggesting this level may act as a gravitational pull into the next expiry.
  
  

 Volatility Remains Muted

The India VIX fell marginally by 0.48%, closing at 12.38, well below the psychological 15-mark. This persistently low volatility continues to reflect:

• Market complacency, but also
  
  
• A supportive backdrop for a gradual uptrend, unless external shocks intervene.
  
  

 Market Outlook: Wait for Breakout Confirmation

Despite holding above major short-term averages, the index’s repeated rejection at higher levels is a concern. The current price structure suggests:

• Neutral-to-mildly bearish bias in the near term
  
  
• Potential for sideways action unless a strong trigger drives a breakout
  
  
• 25,300–25,600 will be the key make-or-break range
  
  

Trading Strategy:

• Buy-on-dips remains valid above 25,300, but traders may consider selling on rallies near resistance unless 25,600 is decisively breached.
  
  
• A close above 25,600 could re-ignite bullish momentum with a probable target at 26,000.
  
  
• RSI at 59 reflects fading bullish momentum, but not a reversal yet.
  

 Conclusion: Consolidation Over Capitulation

While short-term caution is warranted, the broader uptrend is not yet threatened. The index is likely consolidating within a well-defined range, and a breakout from 25,300–25,600 will be critical in determining the next directional bias.

Until then, traders should remain tactical—tightening stops, managing positions near resistance, and waiting for clearer breakout cues before placing aggressive bets.