Nifty’s Rare 6-Week Losing Streak , What History Says and How Traders Should Prepare

The Nifty 50 has just completed six consecutive weeks of declines — an event so rare that it has happened only twice in the last two decades. In 2008 and 2020, such prolonged weakness followed brutal sell-offs of 25–30% and was then met with sharp rebounds, averaging +5–8% over the next four to six weeks.

But this time, the situation is different. The latest streak comes after a modest 4.97% drop, making it more of a slow bleed than an outright market crash. That raises a key question: Will history repeat itself, or is this time different?

Six-Week Losing Streaks: A Rare Club

Looking at historical data, six-week losing streaks have been extremely rare for the Nifty:

In both 2008 and 2020, steep sell-offs were followed by strong rebounds — but both instances occurred during periods of extreme volatility and fear. This year’s relatively shallow decline suggests a rebound may be less explosive.

The More Common 5-Week Losing Streak

While six-week runs are extremely rare, five-week losing streaks have appeared 13 times in the last 18 years. The odds after such streaks lean in favour of a bounce:

• 1-week forward returns: Positive in 85% of cases, averaging +2.3%
  
  
• 4-week forward returns: Positive in 69% of cases, averaging +1.9%
  
  
• 6-week forward returns: Positive in 69% of cases, averaging +2.6%
  
  

Interestingly, the current 4.18% drop during this latest five-week stretch is much smaller than past instances, where double-digit declines were common.

Why This Time Might Be Different

The milder decline suggests this is not a panic-driven sell-off but rather a sentiment-driven correction. That changes the dynamics:

• Upside Potential May Be Limited — Without capitulation selling, sharp V-shaped recoveries are less likely.
  
  
• Macro Factors Will Drive the Next Move — Global risk sentiment, crude oil prices, FII flows, and domestic economic triggers will be key.
  
  
• Short-Term Opportunities for Traders — The statistical bias towards a bounce is strong, but sustained rallies need fresh catalysts.
  
  

The Bottom Line

While history shows that both 5- and 6-week losing streaks in the Nifty are often followed by short-term rebounds, the scale of the decline matters. This time, the drawdown has been modest, meaning traders should temper expectations for an explosive recovery.

The market may well see a relief rally in the coming weeks, but the strength and sustainability of that move will depend on whether macro conditions align in its favour. Until then, risk management should remain the top priority.