Nifty Rebounds Above 25,000: Key Resistance Zone at 25,250 in Focus

After testing crucial psychological levels, the Nifty index staged an impressive intraday comeback, buoyed by strength in heavyweight banking stocks such as HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. This recovery highlights a strong demand zone near 25,000, where buyers have once again stepped in to support the index.

Technically, the Nifty formed a Pin Bar candlestick right at its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50-DEMA), which currently lies around 24,938. This signals that bulls are defending the zone fiercely, especially as the index recaptured the 25,000 mark and closed the session at 25,090.70, up by 122.30 points.

Technical Setup: Bulls Holding the Fort

Despite this bounce, the index still trades below short-term 10-day and 20-day EMAs, clustered around 25,200 — a region that’s emerging as a supply zone. The current structure points to a cautious undertone, with 25,200–25,320 acting as the next key resistance range.

The support zone between 24,900 and 25,000 is proving resilient. As long as Nifty remains above 24,800, bulls have a shot at extending the rally. However, a decisive close above 25,250 is required to reverse the short-term bearish setup and confirm a trend continuation to the upside.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still hovering below the neutral 50 mark, reflecting a lack of strong bullish momentum.

Derivatives Action: Cautious Optimism Emerging

The derivatives data continues to paint a mixed picture. There’s visible resistance at 25,100, where aggressive Call writing has pushed open interest to 80.41 lakh contracts. On the other hand, the 25,000 Put has the highest open interest at 85.87 lakh contracts, reinforcing it as a strong support level.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has climbed from 0.59 to 0.86, indicating more Put writing, which often hints at strengthening downside protection. Still, the reading remains under 1, suggesting that overall bullish conviction isn’t fully back yet. The Max Pain level has shifted to 25,100, implying a potential expiry gravitating near this level — consistent with the current consolidation phase.

Volatility: Calm Under Pressure

The India VIX dipped by 1.67% to settle at 11.20, remaining well below the critical 13 mark. This indicates that, while bears are active during intraday moves, the broader market isn't exhibiting signs of panic or sharp sell-offs. Instead, the tone remains more consolidative than corrective.

Outlook: Key Breakout Levels to Watch

Despite some drag from heavyweight stocks like Reliance, the Nifty has managed to hold the 25,000 level, reaffirming it as a psychological and technical support. The 50-DEMA at 24,938 is now the critical pivot; a break below it could open the door for a deeper correction.

On the upside, 25,250 remains the breakout point. A move beyond this resistance zone, supported by volume and broader participation, could shift short-term sentiment back in favour of the bulls.

Until that happens, the market remains in a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, with traders adopting a wait-and-watch approach. FPI positioning, especially in index futures, and activity near the 25,000–25,200 band will be key triggers for the next directional move.