Stock market Today: Nifty Holds Lower Base, Upside Still Constrained; Relief Rally Faces Key Hurdles

Market Recap – Nifty

The Nifty 50 index ended the session at 25,289.90, up 0.53%, as it attempted a mild rebound following the recent sharp correction. The recovery remained measured, reflecting cautious market participation, though the improvement in the advance–decline ratio suggests selective buying interest emerging at lower levels.

On the daily chart, Nifty formed a long-legged doji, highlighting continued indecision after heightened volatility. The index remains below its short- and medium-term moving averages, underscoring that the broader trend is still fragile. While Nifty managed to close marginally near the VWAP, it has yet to demonstrate sustained upside strength. Notably, the index reclaimed the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 25,265, offering short-term stability.

On the hourly chart, a modest base is developing near recent lows, supported by a rising intraday trendline, indicating an attempt to stabilize after the sell-off.

Momentum indicators show tentative improvement. The daily RSI has recovered to around 34, up from the deeply oversold 28–29 zone, suggesting easing downside momentum, though it remains well below bullish thresholds. The MACD continues to stay in negative territory, signaling that the recovery is corrective rather than trend-changing.

Meanwhile, India VIX cooled to 13.35, down 3.12%, indicating a slight reduction in near-term volatility.

Key Levels – Nifty

• Support: 25,150–25,100
• Resistance: 25,450–25,520

A relief rally driven by oversold conditions may extend into the coming session. However, holding above 25,150 on a closing basis will be critical to sustain the recovery attempt. Failure to do so could invite renewed selling pressure.

Nifty Bank Update – Recovery Attempts Face Resistance

The Nifty Bank index closed at 59,200.10, gaining 0.68%, as it attempted a rebound after the recent sharp decline. The daily chart formed a classical doji, signaling indecision and a pause following the sell-off rather than a decisive reversal.

Despite the bounce, Nifty Bank continues to trade below its short-term moving averages and remains under the declining Supertrend, currently placed near 60,158, which continues to cap upside attempts. However, the index is holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near 59,000, suggesting that the corrective phase may be stabilizing for now.

Momentum indicators reflect a mild recovery. The daily RSI has improved to around 47, indicating easing bearish pressure, though it remains below its average and lacks strong bullish confirmation. The MACD stays in negative territory, with the histogram still below the zero line, reinforcing the corrective bias.

On the hourly chart, Nifty Bank has stabilized above the lower Bollinger Band and VWAP, with a short-term base forming near recent lows—pointing to reduced downside momentum.

Key Levels – Nifty Bank

• Support: 58,900–58,750
• Resistance: 59,500–59,700

As long as 58,750 is defended on a closing basis, a short-term rebound remains possible. However, a sustained move above 59,700 is essential to improve the near-term structure and challenge the prevailing bearish setup.

Overall Outlook

Both Nifty and Nifty Bank are attempting oversold rebounds, but the broader structure remains corrective and fragile. The absence of strong follow-through buying and the indices trading below key moving averages suggest that upside remains constrained. Until major resistance levels are reclaimed decisively, sell-on-rise strategies are likely to dominate, with traders advised to remain cautious and selective.