Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the Maharatna PSU, is gearing up to release its Q2FY26 results on Monday, October 27. All eyes are on the oil major as investors anticipate a sharp year-on-year growth in profit after tax, largely supported by a low base, improved refining margins, and stronger retail sales.
Market Performance
Ahead of its quarterly earnings, IOC share price witnessed a strong uptick in Monday’s trade. The stock climbed nearly 3%, hitting a day’s high of ₹154.45 on the BSE. So far in 2025, IOC shares have gained 11.67% on a year-to-date basis and around 5% in the past one year, reflecting steady investor confidence in the Maharatna PSU’s performance.
Q2 Preview: Profit Likely to Jump on Lower Base
For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, IOC is likely to post multi-fold growth in profit after tax (PAT). The sharp rise is attributed to:
- Lower inventory losses compared to the same period last year
- Stronger diesel cracks, supporting refining profitability
- Reduced under-recoveries on LPG sales, improving operational efficiency
- Higher domestic retail sales, helping offset marketing pressure
The combination of improved refining dynamics and better demand recovery is expected to cushion earnings, even as some headwinds persist.
Operating Margins and Financial Strength
IOC’s refining business is projected to remain strong with better Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) this quarter. The improvement in diesel cracks and steady throughput has supported operational resilience. Meanwhile, the company may account for around ₹30 billion in government compensation to offset pricing and marketing adjustments during the period.
On the operational front, EBITDA for the quarter is anticipated to record a significant year-on-year rise, ranging between 110% and 250%, led by margin improvement and stronger throughput.
Key Financial Indicators (Expected Range):
- Revenue: Supported by higher retail sales volumes
- EBITDA: Growth of 110–250% YoY
- GRM: Likely improvement due to firmer diesel cracks and lower inventory losses
- PAT: Multi-fold increase on a low base
Company Update and Outlook
Indian Oil Corporation confirmed through its exchange filing that the Board Meeting is scheduled for October 27, 2025, to review and approve the unaudited financial results for Q2 and H1FY26. The update follows the company’s continued focus on refining efficiency, energy transition, and digital integration across operations.
Despite challenges such as a weaker rupee and stagnant retail fuel prices, IOC’s robust refining margins and improved product mix have helped it sustain profitability momentum. The company’s ability to balance refining gains with marketing constraints remains crucial in maintaining earnings stability in the coming quarters.
Summary
The upcoming IOC Q2 Results 2025 hold significance for investors tracking PSU and OMC stocks. With the stock already witnessing a sharp upmove ahead of earnings, the market is keen to gauge the company’s margin performance, government compensation impact, and the sustainability of refining gains.
As India’s leading non-banking financial company in the oil and gas sector, IOC continues to play a key player in driving the nation’s energy infrastructureThe Q2 results are likely to reaffirm the company’s operational strength and position it as one of the most stable performers in the PSU space.
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