Five-Day Losing Streak Drags Nifty Below 25,000

The Nifty index extended its losing run, closing below the psychological 25,000 mark and signalling growing fragility in the market structure. This marked the benchmark’s fifth straight decline, with consistent failures to reclaim prior-day highs — a clear sign that bearish momentum is dominating sentiment.

Technical Overview

• The index has shut shop below the make-or-break 25,000 zone, which overlaps with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 20-day EMA — creating a strong resistance cluster.
  
  
• On the daily chart, Nifty registered a breakdown with a strong bearish candle, now trading under both its 20- and 50-day EMAs. These moving averages have flipped into formidable hurdles.
  
  
• Momentum indicators confirm the weakness, with the RSI slipping below 50, signaling that bears now have the upper hand.
  
  
• Immediate support sits at 24,800–24,850, coinciding with the 0.618 retracement of the recent rally. Resistance has shifted lower to 25,050–25,000.
  
  

Unless the index reclaims this ceiling, every bounce is likely to invite fresh selling pressure, while a decisive breach below 24,800 could prolong the downside spiral toward 24,620.

Derivatives Snapshot

The derivatives setup continues to reflect a bearish undertone:

• Aggressive call writing at the 25,000 strike (1.74 crore contracts) has firmly established this level as a resistance ceiling.
  
  
• The open interest at 24,500 (89.99 lakh contracts) has reinforced this band as immediate support.
  
  
• The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) slipped further to 0.58 from 0.78, underscoring bearish bias. However, with the PCR nearing oversold territory, short-covering rebounds cannot be ruled out.
  
  

Volatility Check

The India VIX inched up 2.47% to 10.78, showing mild risk-off sentiment despite sharp intraday swings. Notably, the fear gauge remains close to historical lows, highlighting traders’ reluctance to build aggressive hedges — a sign of cautious complacency.

Market Outlook

Nifty’s broader setup has clearly tilted bearish. The five-day losing streak, combined with lower highs and sustained trade below moving averages, points to a weakening trend. Former support at 25,000 has now turned into resistance, with call writers tightening their grip and put writers shifting lower.

As long as the index stays capped under the 25,050–25,000 band, sellers are expected to retain control. A decisive move below 24,800 could open the gates to 24,620, maintaining a sideways to bearish short-term outlook.