M2M Surge and Data Uptake May Keep Airtel on Track in Q1 FY26

India’s telecom sector saw steady growth in the first quarter of FY26, with broadband, wireless, and machine-to-machine (M2M) segments performing well. Bharti Airtel, in particular, continued to add subscribers and increase its data-driven revenue.

Q1 Snapshot: Industry Growth March–June 2025

The telecom market continued its recovery and expansion trajectory:

• Broadband Subscribers rose 3.8%, from 944.1 million in March to 979.7 million in June 2025
• Total Phone Connections grew 1.5% to reach 1,218.4 million
• Wireless Subscribers rose 0.6%, totaling 1,170.9 million
• M2M connections grew from 73.9 million to 79.4 million, a 7.4% increase from the previous quarter, showing strong demand for IoT solutions.

Broadband Race: Airtel Holding Ground, Jio Leads

Based on TRAI's June 2025 data, all major broadband providers clocked similar growth (~3.7%–3.9%) in net additions:

While Jio remains the leader by sheer volume, Airtel’s 10.8 million net adds suggest strong traction across ,the broadban segment.

Urban vs. Rural Dynamics

• Urban Telephony Subscribers grew 1.5% MoM to 679.9 million in June (from 669.7 million in May)
• Rural Subscribers edged up 0.2% to 538.5 million, showing slower penetration compared to urban markets

Urban India appears to be reaching market saturation, while rural areas are still growing, but more slowly.

Airtel’s Q1 FY26 Outlook: Margin Stability, ARPU Growth

Airtel looks ready for a strong Q1 FY26, thanks to its continued subscriber growth.

• ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) expected to rise from ₹247 to ₹248
• EBITDA margins forecast at 56–58%, aided by:
  • Postpaid and broadband ARPU gains
  • Enterprise and IoT services uptake
  • Operational cost efficiencies despite ongoing 5G rollouts
• Capex Guidance: ₹6,000–7,000 crore
• Net-debt/EBITDA ratio to improve, supported by strong internal cash generation

The Bigger Picture

With more M2M connections, higher broadband use, and loyal postpaid customers, Bharti Airtel is in a good position to stay profitable as it pursues digital and 5G goals. While Jio is still the market leader, Airtel’s growth across different areas could deliver strong value for shareholders in the coming quarters.