Market Mood Sour as Nifty Wraps September with Sideways-to-Bearish Outlook

The Nifty index wrapped up its September series with a modestly positive finish, but the ride was anything but smooth. Volatility, sharp intraday whipsaws, and persistent selling pressure defined the series. On the final day, the index marked its eighth consecutive session of decline a rare signal that underscores the growing caution among investors.

Despite intermittent rebounds, the benchmark was capped by stiff resistance levels, leaving the near-term outlook tilted firmly to the downside.

Technical Overview of Nifty

• Closing Level: 24,611.10 (down 23.80 points)
  
  
• Support Zone: 24,600 – 24,550 (near 0.786 Fibonacci retracement)
  
  
• Resistance Zone: 24,800 – 24,850
  
  
• Trend Indicators:
  
  
  • Slipped below 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs
    
    
  • RSI below 40, confirming bearish momentum
    
    
  • Persistent lower highs and lower closes
    
    

Unless Nifty decisively reclaims the 24,800–24,900 zone, every bounce is likely to attract renewed selling. On the downside, a breach of 24,550 could accelerate declines toward 24,300.

Derivatives Snapshot

• Aggressive call writing outweighs put activity
  
  
• Heavy OI build-up at 25,000 strike (68.73 lakh contracts) confirms it as a formidable resistance level
  
  
• Strong put OI at 24,600 strike (41.64 lakh contracts) reflects immediate support
  
  
• Put-Call Ratio (PCR): 0.72 (up from 0.63, but still bearish)
  
  

This positioning highlights limited upside potential, with market participants preparing for further weakness.

Volatility Check

The India VIX slipped 2.64% to 11.06, yet volatility remains elevated amid sharp intraday swings. Traders are building aggressive hedges, suggesting a risk-averse environment.

Market Outlook

Nifty’s broader structure continues to look fragile:

• Former supports have flipped into strong resistance zones
  
  
• Momentum indicators point to sustained weakness
  
  
• Short-covering rallies remain absent, with sellers dominating every rebound
  
  

As long as Nifty trades below the 24,800–24,850 resistance band, the bias will remain sideways to bearish. A breakdown below 24,550 could open the gates to 24,300, further weighing on investor sentiment.

Key Takeaways for Traders

1. Watch 24,550 closely — any decisive breakdown here may accelerate the downtrend.
   
   
2. Resistance remains capped at 24,800–24,850 — rallies may face immediate selling pressure.
   
   
3. Derivatives positioning signals weakness, with call writing at higher strikes and puts shifting lower.
   
   
4. Maintain caution — until a reversal emerges, the broader trend remains bearish