Monthly Expiry Ends Flat for Nifty Bank; 59,500 Remains the Key Hurdle

Market Overview

The Nifty Bank index ended its monthly expiry on a subdued note, registering a marginally negative close after three consecutive months of gains. The index remains entrenched within a broader consolidation phase, characterised by muted trading volumes and a lack of clear directional conviction. Repeated rejection from the downward-sloping trendline continues to weigh on the short-term structure, highlighting persistent supply pressure at higher levels.

At present, Nifty Bank is confined to a tight trading range of 59,500–58,600, reinforcing the absence of momentum. A decisive breakout above 59,500 is essential to revive bullish sentiment and signal a shift in market structure.

Price Action and Trend Analysis

On Tuesday, Nifty Bank showed tentative resilience by rebounding sharply from lower levels; however, the move lacked strong follow-through buying. The index closed 238.90 points higher at 59,171.25, managing to finish above the highs of the previous two sessions. Despite this recovery, overall market participation remained muted, suggesting cautious optimism rather than strong conviction.

From a trend perspective, the index continues to draw support from the 58,800–58,700 demand zone, which has helped contain downside risks so far. However, the December series has largely witnessed sideways price action, with every rally attracting fresh selling pressure. This behavior has firmly established the 59,500–59,600 zone as a critical resistance band.

Technical Indicators Signal Consolidation

Technically, the setup remains fragile, with Nifty Bank locked in a prolonged consolidation phase—raising the likelihood of continued range-bound trading in the near term. Buyers and sellers are actively defending their respective levels, resulting in a clear equilibrium.

Momentum indicators support this indecisive structure:

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 mark, indicating subdued momentum
• No strong trend confirmation is visible on either side

This suggests that the index is awaiting a decisive trigger to break out of its current range.

Derivatives Snapshot: Options Data Reflect Balance

The derivatives landscape reflects a balanced and cautious market stance. Both call and put writers have added fresh positions at at-the-money and nearby strikes, reinforcing the prevailing sideways bias and limiting near-term directional potential.

• A notable build-up of around 14.92 lakh call contracts at the 59,500 strike has strengthened this level as a strong resistance zone
• On the downside, approximately 7.21 lakh put contracts at the 59,000 strike are providing short-term support

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has improved to 1.00 from 0.67, indicating relatively balanced sentiment and suggesting that buyers are effectively defending key support levels.

Market Outlook: Range-Bound Bias Continues

Nifty Bank continues to trade without a clear directional bias in the December series, keeping the near-term outlook cautious. The broader structure remains delicate amid an extended consolidation phase, with sellers firmly guarding the 59,500–59,700 resistance band.

• Key Support Zone: 58,700–58,800
• Key Resistance Zone: 59,500–59,700

The heavy concentration of call writing near at-the-money strikes, combined with the gradual shifting of put positions to lower levels, further reinforces the sideways market bias.

Key Triggers Ahead

• Bullish Scenario: A decisive and sustained close above 59,500 could trigger short covering and open the path toward 60,100

Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below 58,800 may weaken the structure, invite fresh selling pressure, and drag the index toward 58,500, extending the consolidation phase