Muted Moves, Firm Structure: Nifty Bank Awaits 61,000 Breakout

Market Recap

Nifty Bank continued to trade with subdued momentum but showed relative resilience compared to the benchmark index, managing to hold gains at elevated levels. Price action remained confined within a narrow intraday band, reflecting controlled consolidation rather than aggressive unwinding.

Despite the absence of a decisive breakout, the index once again defended its critical support zone, signalling steady institutional participation on declines. Over the past four sessions, Nifty Bank has oscillated within a compact range, with both bulls and bears protecting their respective territories.

A durable base is gradually forming in the 60,400–60,250 corridor, which now serves as a key defensive pocket for buyers. Meanwhile, the index continues to hover near the psychologically significant 61,000 mark. A sustained move above this threshold could validate renewed buying momentum. Until then, range-bound conditions are likely to persist.

Thursday’s session maintained a sideways undertone. Trading within the established multi-session range, the index consistently held its support base and concluded marginally lower by 5.60 points at 60,739.75, reinforcing the preference for a range-trading approach.

Technical View

The ongoing price action highlights a compression phase, often a precursor to volatility expansion. Structurally, the index continues to register higher lows while sustaining above its short-term 10-day moving average, indicating constructive consolidation rather than exhaustion.

The formation of a small-bodied candlestick with a noticeable lower shadow suggests intraday buying support, although conviction remains moderate.

The 60,400–60,250 zone has evolved into a robust demand cluster. This region aligns with:

• The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level
• The 10-day moving average

This confluence makes it a critical inflection zone for the index.

Momentum indicators reinforce the constructive bias:

• RSI near 60, reflecting improving bullish undertones
• Gradual easing of selling pressure

A decisive breakout above 61,000 would likely trigger the next leg of the uptrend. Conversely, pullbacks toward the 60,450–60,250 band are expected to attract fresh accumulation.

Derivatives Snapshot

Options positioning reflects a gradually strengthening undertone.

• Put writers have added positions at out-of-the-money strikes, cushioning near-term downside risk.
• Call writers appear to be shifting exposure toward higher strikes, suggesting expectations of upward-tilted consolidation.

Key observations:

• 8.32 lakh open interest at the 61,000 call strike, establishing it as a key resistance barrier
• 8.31 lakh contracts added at the 60,500 put strike, reinforcing it as near-term support
• Put–Call Ratio (PCR) eased to 1.09 from 1.12, indicating sustained optimism with continued dominance of put writing

The derivatives setup suggests defined support below with resistance clearly placed at 61,000.

Market Outlook

Nifty Bank is displaying early signs of bullish stabilisation within a healthy consolidation framework. The index continues to trade comfortably above short-term averages while building a firm base in the 60,450–60,200 region.

Although recent price movement has remained muted, declines are being promptly absorbed — signalling renewed buying appetite at lower levels.

A sustained breakout above 61,000 could ignite a sharper short-covering rally and accelerate upside momentum. On the downside, retracements toward the 60,400–60,250 support band are expected to invite meaningful buying interest and further accumulation.

As long as this pivotal support zone remains intact, a buy-on-dips strategy appears favourable. Traders should remain selective, disciplined, and tactically agile while navigating this consolidation phase.