Nifty and Bank Nifty Drift as Recovery Loses Momentum

Indian equity benchmarks ended the session on a cautious note as the recent recovery attempt began to lose steam. Both Nifty 50 and Nifty Bank witnessed choppy price action, reflecting indecision among market participants amid key technical resistances.

Nifty Outlook: Sideways Bias Persists Amid Resistance

The Nifty 50 closed at 26,142.10, down 0.13%, with the session lacking a clear directional bias. The formation of an inverted hammer candle on the daily chart signals rejection at higher levels, suggesting selling pressure on rallies.

Technically, Nifty continues to trade below the VWAP at 26,180, which is restricting intraday upside attempts. On the positive side, the index is holding above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 25,980, which is acting as a short-term support base. Additionally, the 38.2% retracement at 26,040 has been tested and respected, helping contain downside pressure for now.

However, the prior swing high near 26,240 remains a significant hurdle and has consistently capped recent recovery efforts. A decisive breakout above this zone is required to revive bullish momentum.

On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band near 25,730 serves as a crucial support level. A sustained close below this level could weaken the broader structure and open the door for further correction.

Momentum indicators suggest consolidation rather than strength. The daily RSI is hovering near 57 and remains flat, indicating stability but no strong directional momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD remains below the signal line, indicating a lack of bullish confirmation.

Overall, Nifty remains range-bound, supported near lower retracement levels but struggling to reclaim VWAP and the 26,240 resistance. The index is likely to continue trading within this broader consolidation zone until a clearer trend emerges.

Nifty Bank Outlook: Consolidation with a Weak Bias

The Nifty Bank index closed at 59,183.60, down 0.20%, extending its losing streak. The index formed a bearish candle and continues to trade within a declining channel, with prices capped below the falling trendline drawn from recent highs.

Momentum indicators reflect weakness without oversold conditions. The daily RSI is near 53, while the MACD remains below its signal line, suggesting a lack of strength rather than aggressive selling.

The middle Bollinger Band at 59,300 remains a stiff resistance, suggesting difficulty in regaining upward momentum. On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band around 58,780 remains a key support zone. This area also aligns with recent swing lows, making it a critical level to monitor on a closing basis.

Additionally, Nifty Bank has slipped below the 9-day and 20-day EMAs, keeping short-term pressure intact. Intraday, the index oscillated around the VWAP near 59,200, repeatedly failing to sustain above it.

Unless Nifty Bank decisively reclaims the 59,300–59,350 resistance zone, the trend is likely to remain weak. On the downside, 58,900–58,750 remains the immediate support band.

Market Summary

• Nifty 50: Range-bound with support near 25,980 and resistance at 26,240
• Nifty Bank: Consolidating within a declining channel
• Momentum: Lacking on both indices
• Trend Bias: Sideways to mildly cautious

Both indices remain in a consolidation phase, with markets waiting for a clear trigger to break out of the current range. Until key resistance levels are reclaimed, recovery attempts are likely to face selling pressure.