Nifty Undercuts Recent Base; Momentum Tilts to the Downside| Stock Market Today

Market Recap – Nifty

Nifty ended the session at 25,471.10, down 1.30%, decisively snapping its recent consolidation phase. The index opened weak and extended losses throughout the session, forming a strong bearish candle that broke below the 25,500 support zone.

This breakdown signals a failure to sustain the recent base formation, shifting the near-term bias toward the downside.

Technically, the index has slipped below the 50-day SMA and is now hovering near the 20-day SMA, reflecting deterioration in short-term structure. On the hourly chart, the sharp sell-off has resulted in an inverted saucer pattern, typically associated with distribution and loss of upward momentum.

Momentum Indicators

• RSI at 46, slipping below the mid-zone, signalling weakening momentum
• DMI setup shows the negative directional line gaining strength over the positive line
• ADX at 19.5, indicating a moderate pickup in downside trend strength

Volatility expanded meaningfully, with India VIX surging 13.37% to 13.29, confirming rising uncertainty and risk aversion.

On the weekly timeframe, Nifty ended down 0.87%, forming a dark cloud cover pattern, which signals potential near-term weakness if follow-through selling emerges.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate resistance: 25,630
• Support zone: 25,300–25,200

The index must reclaim 25,630 decisively to stabilise sentiment. Failure to do so may open the door for extended downside toward the 25,300–25,200 region.

Nifty Bank Breaks Consolidation Band; Short-Term Momentum Weakens

Nifty Bank closed at 60,186.65, down 0.91%, breaking below its recent consolidation band near record highs. The index opened at 60,504.40, which remained close to the session’s high — establishing immediate resistance at elevated levels. The daily chart formed a bearish candle, reflecting supply dominance.

The index has slipped below its 9-day EMA, signalling short-term momentum loss. However, it continues to trade above both the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, with the 50-day average near 59,730 acting as structural support. This suggests that while near-term momentum has softened, the broader trend remains intact for now.

Technically, the index is positioned between:

• 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 60,250
• 0.5 retracement at 59,770

The inability to sustain above the 0.382 retracement confirms that the earlier breakout attempt has stalled.

Momentum Indicators

• RSI at 53.83, easing toward the mid-zone
• DMI: +DI remains above –DI, though the gap is narrowing
• MACD remains in positive territory

Sector participation in the decline was broad-based:

• PSU Bank down 0.68%
• Private Bank down 1.02%

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate support: 60,000
• Next support: 59,750
• Resistance zone: 60,500–60,600

For momentum to revive, Nifty Bank must reclaim the 9-day EMA decisively and sustain above 60,500.

Market Outlook

The broader setup reflects short-term momentum deterioration across benchmarks, with Nifty witnessing a structural breakdown while Nifty Bank shows early signs of weakness without a full trend reversal.

If Nifty fails to reclaim broken support levels quickly, the downside may extend further amid rising volatility. Meanwhile, Nifty Bank remains relatively resilient but vulnerable if support near 60,000 gives way.

Traders should adopt a defensive and tactical approach, favouring:

• Selling on rallies in Nifty
• Monitoring key moving averages in Bank Nifty
• Strict risk management amid rising volatility

A decisive reclaim of resistance levels would be required to neutralise the current downside bias.