Nifty Extends Losing Streak, Volatility Signals Uneasy Road Ahead

The Nifty index extended its losing run, closing at 24,634.90, down 0.08%. The benchmark breached the previous session's low, confirming that prevailing weakness persists, with no signs of reversal yet. The daily chart shows a bearish candle with shadows on both ends, underscoring indecision at current levels.

Technical Overview

• Nifty now trades close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 24,620, while remaining below all major moving averages except the 200-DMA.
  
  
• The index has slipped beneath its previous uptrend line, which once acted as support but has now flipped into resistance.
  
  
• Immediate downside levels: A move below 24,600 could expose 24,500 and 24,400, the latter aligning with a prior swing low.
  
  
• Upside trigger: A close above 24,880 would be needed to resume the uptrend.
  
  

Momentum remains weak, with the RSI at 39, highlighting declining strength.

Volatility Update

The India VIX edged up to 11.57, gradually inching higher. This suggests traders should brace for an expansion in volatility over the coming sessions, even as it remains relatively low by historical standards.

Bank Nifty Snapshot

The Bank Nifty index offered some respite, ending at 54,461, up 0.13%, thus halting its recent losing streak. The index formed a long-legged doji on the daily chart, signaling indecision and a lack of clear short-term trend.

Technical Signals:

• RSI eased to 43, slipping from recent highs above 57.
  
  
• MACD is hovering near a negative crossover, adding to cautious signals.
  
  
• The index remains below its 9-, 20-, and 50-day EMAs, keeping pressure intact.
  

Key Levels:

• Support: 54,400 (61.8% retracement); a break could extend weakness toward 54,000.
  
  
• Resistance: 54,800 has turned into immediate resistance, followed by 55,000. A close above this zone would be required for any meaningful reversal.
  

Market Outlook

The overall trend remains choppy and tilted to the weaker side, with the correction phase likely needing more time to play out. For Nifty, reclaiming 24,880 is critical to negate the current weakness, while Bank Nifty requires a decisive close above 54,800–55,000 to revive bullish momentum.