Nifty Struggles Near Make-or-Break Zone; Bearish Bias Deepens Amid Sustained Selling Pressure

The Nifty index continues to face intense selling pressure as it hovers around a critical make-or-break zone. Despite brief intraday rebounds, the lack of follow-through buying suggests continued weakness in broader sentiment. On July 14, 2025, the index closed 67.55 points lower at 25,082.30, slipping below the previous session's low and reinforcing a bearish market structure.

Market Snapshot: Downside Momentum Persists

• Closing Level: 25,082.30
• Day's Loss: 67.55 points
• Key Breakdown: Below the previous low of 25,130
• Immediate Support: 25,000
• Resistance Reversal: 25,200–25,300 now acts as resistance

The index now trades firmly below its 20-day EMA, a critical moving average that reflects short-term trend direction. Selling pressure at higher levels continues to dominate, hinting that bears remain firmly in control.

Technical View: Bearish Structure Strengthens

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below the neutral 50-mark for the first time in three months, signaling a weakening bullish momentum.
• Market breadth remains weak, and failed attempts to reclaim higher levels reflect a lack of conviction from bulls.
• A decisive breakdown below 25,001 could open the gates for a further slide toward 24,800, a key technical level.
• On the flip side, only a sustained move above 25,350 can trigger short-covering and mark a reversal attempt.

Derivatives Snapshot: Bearish Sentiment Dominates

The skewed open interest buildup — with aggressive call writing and subdued put activity — suggests limited upside potential in the short term.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) remains near the oversold territory, but not low enough to spark contrarian bullish bets yet. Max Pain shifting to 25,200 further anchors the index to this narrow range.

Volatility Check: Low VIX, Measured Downtrend

• India VIX rose modestly by 1.38% to 11.98, still well below the critical 15-mark.
• This muted rise indicates a lack of panic, despite the persistent decline, pointing to a controlled, non-chaotic downtrend.

The low-volatility environment supports a gradual corrective move, rather than sudden crashes or volatile reversals.

Market Outlook: Bears Maintain Grip

The Nifty's structural weakness on both daily and weekly charts remains evident. With resistance levels steadily falling and short positions building at higher strikes, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: 25,000 → 24,800
• Resistance: 25,200–25,300 → Key reversal only above 25,350

Unless Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) shift stance and begin short covering or initiate long buildup, upside potential remains capped. The broader trend stays negative and suggests cautious positioning.

Strategy for Traders & Investors

• Short-Term Traders: Stay on the short side unless Nifty convincingly crosses 25,350.
• Positional Traders: Look for breakdown confirmation below 25,000 to add fresh shorts.
• Investors: Wait for earnings clarity and technical stabilization before deploying new capital.

With the earnings season in full swing, particularly from heavyweight IT stocks, upcoming results will play a pivotal role in determining near-term direction. Until a clear reversal signal emerges, the bias remains decidedly bearish.