Nifty Ends Expiry in a Tug of War: Resistance at 25,000 Still Holds Strong

Thursday’s monthly expiry session saw plenty of volatility and sharp swings for the Nifty. Even with negative sentiment in the broader markets, the index stayed above key support levels, showing buyers were active at lower prices. Still, the bulls couldn’t break through 25,000, which remains a tough barrier.

Key Session Highlights

• Closing: 24,768.35 (down 86.70 points)
• High Volatility: Sharp swings both ways during expiry
• Resistance Rejection: Bearish rejection candle near 24,900–25,000
• Support Holding: Buyers defended the 24,500–24,550 zone

The session closed with a small loss, but the main focus was on the ongoing battle between buyers trying to build support and sellers holding the resistance.

Technical Outlook: Base Forming, But Ceiling Strong

Nifty is trying to form a short-term bottom near the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (24,500–24,550), an area where buyers are stepping in. But the index still hasn’t managed to move past the 24,900–25,000 resistance, where several short-term moving averages meet.

• 10-DEMA
• 20-DEMA
• 50-DEMA

Until this cluster is breached with strength and volume, any rally is vulnerable to profit booking.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains subdued around 40, reflecting weak momentum and a lack of conviction from bulls.

F&O Snapshot: Range Well-Defined

• Strongest Resistance: 25,000 strike (Call OI: 50.31 lakh contracts)
• Immediate Support: 24,500 strike (Put OI: 36.24 lakh contracts)
• Put-Call Ratio (PCR): Rose from 0.78 to 0.90 — indicating bargain buying at lower levels

F&O data shows the market is stuck in a range. There’s new put writing at lower levels, but strong call writing above is limiting gains. This suggests traders expect the market to consolidate in the short term instead of breaking out.

Volatility Snapshot: Calm Despite Choppiness

• India VIX: Rose 3.01% to close at 11.54
• Still below the panic zone of 13

Despite negative cues, the low volatility implies that there is no widespread panic or large-scale liquidation. The market appears to be digesting macro news and positioning for the next move — rather than fearing an imminent breakdown.

Outlook: Eyes on Breakout Triggers

The Nifty now has clearly defined zones on both sides:

• Support Zone: 24,500–24,550
• Resistance Zone: 24,900–25,000 (psychological + technical barrier)

A breakout above 24,900 with volume could trigger short-covering, especially with the long-short ratio hovering near 14% — an oversold indicator. However, unless the 25,000 mark is convincingly reclaimed, any rally remains susceptible to selling pressure.

Conclusion: Stay Tactical, Not Aggressive

The index continues to oscillate in a consolidation zone, lacking a clear directional bias. While buyers are active near support, the resistance around 25,000 remains unyielding. Until a breakout or breakdown occurs, the best strategy remains:

• Buy near support with tight stops
• Sell on rallies into resistance
• Avoid aggressive bets until confirmation emerges

As expiry pressure fades and macro cues settle, traders should watch closely for a directional breakout, which could dictate the tone for August.