Nifty Struggles to Break Range; Bearish Undercurrents Persist Amid Low Volatility

The Indian equity market stayed mostly flat, with the Nifty closing at 24,574.20, down 75.35 points on Wednesday. For the fourth day in a row, the index traded in a tight range and did not move strongly up or down. Even though it dipped below previous lows during the day, it still closed above them, showing uncertainty and some intraday swings.

The muted price action comes against the backdrop of tariff-related developments and weekly derivative expiry, prompting traders to adopt a wait-and-watch approach amid growing uncertainty.

Technical View: Range-Bound but Vulnerable

Nifty is still moving between 24,500 and 24,750, with daily charts showing small changes and no clear direction. Key technical points are:

• The 100-day moving average near 24,595 has been a steady support. But if Nifty falls below 24,535–24,500, it could drop further to 24,300–24,250.
• On the upside, resistance is at 24,760, matching the 10-day moving average. Unless Nifty closes well above this, any bounce is likely to meet selling.
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still around 40, showing weak momentum and a market that remains under bearish pressure.

Overall, the weak setup and repeated failed rallies suggest that any bounce may not last long and could be a chance to start new short trades.

Derivatives Snapshot: Bearish Bias Intensifies

Derivatives data shows that bears are in control:

• At the 24,700 strike, call open interest (OI) has swelled to 1.51 crore contracts, establishing it as a formidable resistance zone.
• The highest put OI stands at 87.99 lakh contracts at the 24,500 strike, reinforcing it as the immediate support.
• Put writers are moving to lower strikes, which shows that bullish sentiment is fading and caution is rising.
• The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) fell from 0.72 to 0.60, confirming more bearish bets and that call sellers are dominating at higher levels.

Overall, the options market shows traders are hedging and preparing for downside risk, not expecting a rebound.

Volatility Check: Calm Before the Storm?

India VIX, which measures market volatility, rose slightly by 2.11% to 11.96. This small increase shows a bit more risk, but overall volatility is still low, near 11.

This low-volatility environment suggests that:

• The market is pricing in consolidation, rather than a sharp correction.
• Panic is absent, despite weak breadth and technical pressure.

However, with important economic events and global risks ahead, a sudden jump in volatility is still possible.

Market Outlook: Sideways Drift with Bearish Bias

Weak momentum above resistance and strong call writing suggest the market favors bears. Unless Foreign Portfolio Investors start covering shorts and buying stocks, gains are likely to stay limited.

With technicals getting weaker and derivatives data showing caution, it seems safer to sell on rallies rather than try to pick a bottom.

Unless there is a clear breakout or bullish reversal, Nifty will likely stay stuck in a choppy, sideways range.