Nifty’s Rally on Hold, Break Above Key Level Could Unleash Momentum

Indian equity markets saw a mixed session today, with Nifty 50 and Nifty Bank showing signs of recovery but still lacking decisive momentum to break out of their current ranges. While both indices managed to close in the green, key technical levels continue to act as hurdles for a sustained rally.

Nifty 50 Analysis: Testing Key Resistance but Lacking Follow-Through

Nifty closed the session at 24,619.35, up 0.54%, forming a bullish candle after hitting an intraday high of 24,664.55. The index continues to display an alternating pattern—negative closes followed by positive ones—indicating an absence of sustained directional strength.

From a technical standpoint, Nifty tested the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 24,655 (from the recent swing high of 25,661 to the swing low of 24,344) but failed to secure a close above it.

The short-term trend remains tilted to the downside, with the index trading below the 20-SMA and 50-SMA. However, strong support is visible near the 100-SMA at 24,520, which aligns with the hourly supertrend, creating a solid base.

• Momentum Indicators:
  
  
  • RSI is climbing toward the mid-40s, suggesting early recovery signs.
    
    
  • MACD remains in a negative crossover phase but is starting to flatten.
    
    

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 24,730 (sustained close above this level could open the path for further upside).
  
  
• Support: 24,520 followed by 24,450.
  
  

A buy-on-dip approach may still be applicable as long as the index holds above its key support zones.

Nifty Bank Analysis: Consolidation Persists Amid Contracting Volatility

Nifty Bank ended at 55,181.45, up 0.25%, after moving between 55,340.05 and 55,026.95 during the day. The index remains trapped in a well-defined range, with contracting Bollinger Bands hinting at upcoming volatility.

On the downside, strong support is seen in the 54,950–55,000 zone, where the 100-SMA is placed. However, the index continues to face resistance from the 9-EMA, 20-SMA, and 50-SMA, all of which are sloping downwards, limiting any sharp rebounds.

• Momentum Indicators:
  
  
  • RSI has edged above 40, signalling mild recovery.
    
    
  • MACD is flattening, indicating the possibility of a trend shift if buying pressure strengthens.
    
    

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 55,350–55,450 (breakout above could trigger fresh upside).
  
  
• Support: 55,050–54,950, followed by 54,700 if weakness extends.
  
  

For now, Nifty Bank is likely to remain range-bound but may maintain a slightly positive bias as long as the 100-SMA continues to hold.

Outlook for the Next Session

Both Nifty 50 and Nifty Bank are showing signs of stabilization but need decisive closes above key resistance clusters to confirm momentum. Until then, traders may expect oscillations within the broader range, with selective buying opportunities on dips.

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