Nifty Remains Fragile; Bank Nifty Signals Deeper Caution

Nifty Outlook

• Close: 24,870.10 (▼0.85%)
  
  
• Formed a strong bearish candle on Friday, erasing half of the week’s gains.
  
  
• On the weekly chart, a shooting star emerged, though the index still posted a 0.97% weekly gain.
  
  
• Structure: Above 9-EMA & 20-EMA, but below 50-SMA. The gap from 18th Aug remains a key support.
  
  
• Indicators:
  
  
  • RSI: Dropped from 57 → 50, tilting lower.
    
    
  • MACD: Still on positive crossover.
    
    

• Key Levels:
  
  

  • Support: 24,850 (gap + 38.2% Fib), then 24,650 (23.6% Fib).
    
    
  • Resistance: 25,020 → 25,100.
    
    

• Volatility:

  India VIX steady at 11.73; a move above 12.50 could spike volatility.
  
  

• Bias:

  Fragile, cautious undertone; watch gap support closely.
  
  

Bank Nifty Outlook

• Close: 55,149.40 (▼1.09%)
  
  
• Formed a strong bearish daily candle, filling last week’s gap.
  
  
• On the weekly chart, a dark cloud cover pattern emerged, with a 0.35% weekly loss.
  
  
• Structure: Below all major EMAs (9, 20, 50, 100) → pullbacks likely to stay weak.
  
  
• Indicators:
  
  
  • RSI: Near 40, signaling limited momentum.
    
    
  • Bollinger Bands: Widening, pointing to volatile intraday swings.
    
    

• Key Levels:
  
  

  • Support: 54,905 (swing low), then 54,500 (127.8% Fib).
    
    
  • Resistance: 55,500 → 55,600.
    
    

• Bias:

  Deeper caution; sell-on-rise favored unless 56,150 is reclaimed.
  
  

 Summary:

• Nifty remains fragile, with upside capped below 25,100 unless gap support holds.
  
  
• Bank Nifty signals deeper caution, with 54,905 acting as a make-or-break zone.
  
  

Volatility remains muted, but technical patterns suggest “sell on rise” strategy in both indices until key resistance levels are decisively reclaimed.