Nifty Struggles Near 26,000 as Bearish Candle Emerges; Support Holds but Sentiment Turns Cautious

Nifty closed at 25,910.05, down 0.40%, as the index once again failed to sustain above the 26,000 mark. The market drifted steadily lower through the day and formed a bearish candle, reflecting persistent hesitation near the upper Bollinger Band, where upside momentum has repeatedly faded in recent sessions.

Repeated Rejections at 26,000 Signal Supply Pressure

On the hourly timeframe, the 26,000–26,020 supply zone remains a firm resistance. Multiple intraday rejections from this region highlight:

• Exhaustion of bullish momentum
  
  
• Presence of aggressive call writers defending the level
  
  
• A short-term pause after a steady upward move
  
  

This inability to clear the supply zone suggests near-term consolidation or mild weakness unless a strong breakout emerges.

Trend Structure Still Intact Despite Weakness

Even with the intraday decline, the broader trend maintains strength:

• Nifty trades above the middle band of the Donchian Channel
  
  
• Price remains well-supported above the 9-EMA and 20-EMA
  
  
• RSI hovers near 60, indicating restricted strength but no breakdown
  
  
• MACD remains muted and has yet to confirm a bullish crossover
  
  

These factors imply that the underlying market structure is healthy, though short-term momentum is sluggish.

Derivatives Snapshot: Calls Dominate at 26,000; Support Firm at 25,500

The derivatives setup builds a clear technical range:

• 26,000 strike holds the highest Call OI (1.35 crore contracts) – confirming it as immediate resistance
  
  
• 25,500 strike holds 70.37 lakh Put OI, reinforcing the level as a strong near-term support
  
  

The Put–Call Ratio (PCR) dropped sharply from 1.32 to 0.90, indicating:

• A shift toward caution
  
  
• Higher call writing vs put additions
  
  
• Market participants are hedging for consolidation or a slight downside.
  
  

This OI structure aligns with the price-chart resistance zone.

Market Outlook: Support at 25,750–25,700; Breakout Needs Close Above 26,100

Immediate support for Nifty lies at 25,750–25,700, a zone where buyers have consistently emerged over the past week. As long as the index sustains above this band, the larger trend remains resilient.

On the upside:

• A decisive close above 26,100 is required to break past the supply zone
  
  
• A breakout could open the path toward the all-time high of 26,277.35
  
  
• Failure to cross may keep Nifty range-bound between 25,700–26,000