Stock Market today: Nifty Under Pressure Ahead of Union Budget, Volatility Remains Elevated

Indian equity benchmarks remained cautious ahead of the Union Budget, with the Nifty 50 closing at 25,320.65, down 0.39%, extending its subdued trend for the second consecutive session. The index faced selling pressure at higher levels throughout the day and failed to build on recent rebounds, reflecting investor caution amid rising policy uncertainty.

Nifty Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, Nifty continues to trade above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently near 25,200, which serves as a crucial medium-term support and helps preserve the broader bullish structure. However, the index is still below its short- and medium-term moving averages, highlighting the absence of strong follow-through buying and resistance near higher levels.

Momentum indicators remain weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 40, indicating subdued momentum and limited buying interest. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) setup favors bears, with the negative directional line positioned above the positive line, while the ADX near 26 suggests moderate trend strength.

On the downside, the 25,250–25,200 zone remains an important support band. A sustained break below this range could open the door for further downside toward the 25,000 mark. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen in the 25,370–25,450 range, followed by a stronger hurdle at 25,500–25,550.

The India VIX at 13.63 reflects elevated volatility, and with the Union Budget scheduled for 1 February, market swings are expected to remain sharp in the coming sessions.

Nifty Bank Remains Range-Bound Despite Broader Trend Strength

The Nifty Bank index closed at 59,610.45, down 0.58%, extending its mild corrective phase after failing to sustain near recent highs. The index continues to trade below the VWAP at 59,673, indicating persistent short-term pressure.

Despite the near-term consolidation, Nifty Bank remains above all major moving averages, signalling that the broader uptrend is still intact. However, the index is trading below the Supertrend indicator, which has emerged as a key near-term resistance zone.

The RSI near 52 suggests stable momentum above the neutral level, while the DMI setup remains mildly negative, with the negative directional line above the positive line. The ADX around 18 indicates a lack of strong directional conviction, reinforcing the current range-bound structure.

On the downside, 59,200 remains an immediate support, followed by 58,800. A decisive close below this zone could increase downside pressure. On the upside, the 59,900–60,000 band acts as immediate resistance, followed by the Supertrend level near 60,200.

Market Outlook

With the Union Budget approaching, both Nifty and Nifty Bank are likely to remain volatile and range-bound in the near term. While the broader trend remains intact, the lack of strong momentum suggests that markets may continue to consolidate until policy clarity emerges.

Investors and traders are expected to stay cautious, with key support and resistance levels guiding short-term price action, while volatility is likely to stay elevated around budget-related developments.