Silver has once again captured the spotlight in global commodities markets. On September 22, 2025, silver prices surged past the ₹1.28 lakh mark on MCX Ahmedabad Spot and have since advanced further to ₹1.35 lakh, registering a historic all-time high. This rally is not just a headline—history suggests it may be a stepping stone to even bigger gains.
Historical Breakouts: What the Data Says
Date of Crossing the High | MCX Ahmedabad Spot Price(Rs.) | Previous High (Rs.) | 3M Forward Return |
18-Nov-05 | 12,250 | 12,034 | 11.84% |
03-Mar-06 | 14,600 | 14,575 | 25.46% |
21-Feb-08 | 22,238 | 22,178 | 9.66% |
14-Jul-08 | 25,500 | 25,350 | -27.42% |
16-Sep-09 | 26,785 | 26,229 | 2.11% |
12-May-10 | 29,810 | 29,440 | -3.22% |
26-Aug-10 | 30,180 | 29,940 | 37.85% |
01-Dec-10 | 43,320 | 42,050 | 15.48% |
03-Mar-11 | 50,915 | 50,025 | 3.88% |
07-Aug-20 | 73,755 | 73,288 | -10.85% |
05-Apr-23 | 73,866 | 73,755 | -5.83% |
03-Apr-24 | 77,482 | 76,801 | 15.44% |
21-Oct-24 | 97,038 | 94,181 | -6.83% |
17-Mar-25 | 99,506 | 98,726 | -1.99% |
18-Jun-25 | 1,09,174 | 1,08,285 | 16.26% |
22-Sep-25 | 1,32,681 | 1,28,940 | - |
Average Return | 5.46% | ||
Total Instances | 15 | ||
Positive Instances | 9 | ||
Strike Rate | 60.00% | ||
A study of the last 15 instances when silver crossed its previous highs shows that meaningful returns have typically followed breakouts.
- Average 3-month forward return: 5.46%
- Strike rate (positive outcomes): 60%
- Notable rallies:
- March 2006: +25.46% in 3 months
- August 2010: +37.85% in 3 months
- June 2025: +16.26% in 3 months
- March 2006: +25.46% in 3 months
While there have been negative phases (such as 2008, 2020, and 2023), the broader pattern shows that silver tends to reward patient investors after breakout moves.
Technical Picture: Targeting ₹1.50 Lakh
Silver’s latest breakout above ₹1.17 lakh, a level that acted as stiff resistance earlier, has firmly established a new upward trajectory.
- Resistance Turned Support: ₹1.17 lakh now acts as a strong floor.
- Current Price Action: Holding steady near ₹1.35 lakh with rising volumes, confirming strong participation.
- Next Target Zone: ₹1.50 lakh, based on measured moves and historical rally extensions.
Momentum indicators and volume trends suggest that this is a sign of strength, not exhaustion, with the metal likely to consolidate briefly before pushing higher.
Investor Takeaways
- Structural Uptrend: Silver is in a long-term bullish trend, supported by technical indicators and historical price behavior.
- Volatility Ahead: Like past rallies, sharp swings are natural, but the bigger picture remains intact.
- Strategy: Investors should view dips as opportunities to accumulate, keeping the ₹1.50 lakh target in mind.
Easy & quick
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