The Nifty index ended the session with a mild rebound, closing at 25,763.35, up 0.16%, as buyers defended key support levels after last week’s correction. Despite the broader pause in momentum, the index continues to hold firm above its critical support zone near 25,740, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
While the index remains trapped within a descending channel, the inability to break past the 25,900 resistance zone suggests that traders are waiting for a clear breakout trigger before taking directional bets.
Technical Overview: Nifty Holds Support, Awaits Breakout
The daily candle formation showed a small-bodied structure, indicating indecision after last week’s retracement. On the hourly chart, a mild rebound from the lower end of the falling channel suggests that the index may attempt a short-term pullback before confirming its next major trend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) is hovering around 59, cooling off from the overbought territory, signaling that momentum is stabilizing rather than reversing. Until the index breaks out above 25,900, the price action may remain range-bound between 25,600 and 26,000.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Support: 25,740 (aligned with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement)
- Secondary Support: 25,600
- Immediate Resistance: 25,900
- Next Resistance: 26,000
The India VIX settled at 12.67, rising 4.28%. A move above 13 could trigger higher short-term volatility, leading to wider intraday swings.
Nifty Bank: Rebounds as Bulls Reclaim Short-Term Support
The Nifty Bank index outperformed the broader market, ending at 58,101.45, up 0.56%, and forming a bullish candle that signaled renewed strength after two subdued sessions. The index managed to reclaim its short-term support zone, staying comfortably above its 9-day exponential moving average (9-EMA) — a sign that buyers are regaining control.
Nifty Bank continues to trade within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with immediate support at 57,800 and resistance near 58,350–58,450. A breakout on either side of this formation will likely dictate the next major move.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI (14): 66 — rebounding from lower zones, showing positive momentum
- MACD: Marginally flattened but remains above the signal line
- Bollinger Bands: Price action stays above the middle band, maintaining a positive bias
The broader structure suggests that the uptrend remains intact as long as the index holds above the middle Bollinger Band. Any short-term dip is expected to attract buying interest.
Sectoral Performance: Banking Pack Shows Broad-Based Strength
Among sectoral indices, the Nifty Private Bank Index rose 0.35% to 28,150.15, while the Nifty PSU Bank Index outperformed with a 1.92% surge to 8,341.35, reflecting broad-based strength within the banking sector.
This rotation-driven rally highlights that market sentiment remains resilient, and dips are being used by participants to re-enter the prevailing uptrend rather than exit positions.
Market Outlook: Consolidation with a Positive Bias
Despite the ongoing consolidation, the broader market structure remains constructive. As long as Nifty sustains above 25,740, the trend bias stays mildly positive. However, a decisive breakout above 25,900–26,000 will be critical for resuming the next leg higher.
Similarly, Nifty Bank’s breakout above 58,450 would confirm renewed bullish momentum toward fresh highs. Until then, traders should maintain a buy-on-dips approach, focusing on accumulating quality stocks near support zones.
Key Highlights
- Nifty Close: 25,763.35 (+0.16%)
- Support Zone: 25,650 – 25,600
- Resistance Zone: 25,900 – 26,000
- Volatility Index (India VIX): 12.67 (+4.28%)
- Short-Term Bias: Neutral to Positive
Key Takeaways
- Nifty finds stability above 25,740; momentum is stabilizing.
- India VIX suggests mild increase in short-term volatility.
- Nifty Bank remains strong, with key support at 57,800.
- PSU Banks outperform, signaling sectoral rotation.
- Market outlook remains positive-to-neutral as long as key supports hold.
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