Missed the Silver Rally? Palladium Could Be the Next Opportunity

Overview

Leadership within the precious metals space rarely remains static. As history has repeatedly shown, relative-value cycles drive performance shifts across metals. While silver has already delivered a strong rally and platinum has recently staged a sharp recovery, attention is now turning toward palladium. This metal has remained deeply discounted for several years.

Recent price action and long-term ratio analysis suggest palladium may be approaching an inflection point, setting the stage for relative outperformance in the next phase of the commodity cycle.

Lessons from Platinum's Turnaround

In our earlier Samshot dated 25 September, we highlighted the Platinum–Gold ratio, noting that prolonged underperformance had pushed platinum into an extreme discount zone. As sentiment began to shift and liquidity conditions improved, platinum responded with a strong mean reversion rally, outperforming gold and validating the thesis that deeply undervalued precious metals tend to catch up once downside pressure exhausts.

This same framework now appears relevant for palladium.

Palladium-Gold Ratio Signals Base Formation

The Palladium–Gold ratio has spent several years compressing after an extended phase of excess and subsequent correction. Long-term charts reveal a well-defined base formation, with prices stabilising near historical support levels.

Importantly, early signs of higher lows are emerging, often a classic signal that selling pressure is waning and accumulation is taking place. This pattern closely mirrors the setup seen in platinum before its recent rally, further strengthening the case for a similar mean-reversion move.

Structural and Fundamental Support

From a fundamental standpoint, palladium remains a strategic industrial metal, primarily used in automotive catalytic converters and select industrial applications. Supply remains constrained, while demand tends to be cyclical and sensitive to global growth and liquidity conditions.

As global financial conditions gradually ease and capital flows begin to rotate back into commodities, the broader precious metals complex stands to benefit. Within this environment, palladium, having significantly lagged gold and silver, appears well positioned to participate in the next leg of the upcycle.

Palladium's Place in the Precious Metals Cycle

Historically, leadership within precious metals tends to rotate rather than move in unison. Gold often leads during periods of uncertainty, followed by silver during momentum phases, with platinum and palladium catching up later as relative-value gaps close.

With silver having already rallied and platinum showing renewed strength, palladium now looks primed for its turn, especially as sentiment shifts away from crowded trades toward overlooked opportunities.

Access for Indian Investors

For Indian investors, direct access to palladium remains limited. Unlike gold and silver, palladium ETFs are not currently available in India. However, investors seeking diversification within the precious metals basket may still consider physical palladium purchases, subject to liquidity, storage, and cost considerations.

Takeaway

Relative-value cycles continue to shape leadership in the precious metals space. After silver’s rally and platinum’s recovery, palladium stands out as a laggard, showing early signs of stabilization. With a long-term base forming, improving technical structure, and supportive macro conditions, palladium appears increasingly well placed to emerge as the next beneficiary of the metals rotation.