Muted Momentum Keeps Nifty Range-Bound; 25K Support Emerges as Make-or-Break Level

The Nifty 50 index closed Thursday’s session on a subdued note, losing 157.80 points to settle at 25,062.10, amid persistent indecision and weak follow-through from bulls. Despite brief intraday recoveries, the index failed to sustain any upward momentum, remaining trapped within a narrow consolidation band of 24,900–25,300. This muted structure reflects a broader market hesitance, with no dominant trend taking shape as sectoral rotations and profit booking kept gains in check.

 Technical Picture: Caught Between Key Moving Averages

On the daily chart, Nifty continues to hover between its 20-day EMA (25,150) and 50-day EMA (24,950)—a clear sign of market indecision. The index has slipped back into a choppy trading range, and unless a sustained breakout above 25,300 materializes, bullish conviction will remain under pressure.

The support cluster around 25,000—backed by the 50-day EMA and the psychologically important level—has proven resilient in recent weeks. This zone now forms a crucial last line of defense for bulls. Repeated tests of the 24,800–24,900 region without any major breakdowns point to strong buying interest on dips. However, unless Nifty convincingly crosses 25,250–25,300, any bounce will likely be capped.

 Derivatives Snapshot: Writers Draw a Tight Battlefield

The derivatives setup underscores the ongoing market tug-of-war. Fresh call writing at 25,200—now with open interest swelling to 81.56 lakh contracts—is acting as a formidable ceiling. On the flip side, the 25,000 Put strike, with 79.82 lakh contracts, continues to attract buyers, defending the lower end.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has slipped to 0.76 (from 1.08), signaling increased call writing and a mildly bearish bias in sentiment. Interestingly, the Max Pain level has shifted to 25,100, suggesting that market participants expect expiry to occur near this level—reinforcing the consolidation narrative.

 Volatility Still in Check

The India VIX edged up modestly by 1.97% to 10.72, but remains well below panic thresholds. This indicates that while bears are active intraday, there’s no overwhelming fear among long-term investors. The low VIX environment often supports range-bound trading rather than directional breakouts.

 Outlook: 25,300 is the Key Trigger for a Trend Reversal

For now, Nifty remains locked in a tight 400-point band, with 25,000–25,300 emerging as the most contested zone. A decisive close above 25,300 could unlock fresh upside potential toward 25,500 and beyond. Conversely, a break below 24,900 could trigger further long unwinding, dragging the index toward 24,700.

Until this range is resolved, traders may continue to witness short-lived moves, best suited for range strategies rather than trend-following setups. Dip-buying near 24,800–25,000 is likely to stay relevant, but conviction will only return on a clear breakout with volume.

 Strategy in Focus:

• Positional Traders: Stay neutral-to-cautious until a breakout beyond 25,300.
  
  
• Intraday Traders: Watch the 25,000–25,200 band for short-term opportunities.
  
  
• Options Traders: Consider iron condors or straddles within the current range, as long as VIX remains muted.