Muted Volatility, Clustered OI Keep Nifty Boxed in Narrow 24,400–24,800 Band

The Nifty 50 index traded with optimism on Wednesday, buoyed by expectations of upcoming GST reforms, and staged a strong rebound from the previous session’s low. However, despite the intraday recovery, the index failed to surpass its prior day’s high, closing just shy of a crucial resistance. Nifty advanced 135.45 points to close at 24,715.05, yet remained capped below the 24,750–24,800 resistance zone, highlighting the persistence of sideways momentum.

Technical Picture: Boxed Between Key Levels

Nifty has now carved out a solid support base around 24,400–24,500, a zone repeatedly defended by buyers in recent sessions. On the hourly chart, a cup-and-handle formation appears to be shaping up, but a breakout confirmation will hinge on a decisive move above the 24,750–24,800 neckline.

• Resistance Zone: 24,750–24,800 (aligned with the 20- & 50-day EMAs).
  
  
• Support Zone: 24,400–24,500 (a critical demand floor).
  
  
• RSI: Holding near the neutral 50 mark, signaling subdued momentum.
  
  

Until a breakout occurs on either side, Nifty is likely to stay locked within this defined band, creating whipsaw trading conditions.

Derivatives Snapshot

The options market suggests a cautiously optimistic undertone.

• Call Side: Heavy writing at the 25,000 strike (OI: 89.67 lakh contracts) confirms it as a firm resistance ceiling.
  
  
• Put Side: The 24,500 strike remains the anchor support, attracting the highest OI at 1.20 crore contracts.
  
  
• PCR: Jumped from 0.81 to 1.21, reflecting aggressive put writing and an emerging bullish bias, though price confirmation is still awaited.
  
  

Volatility Check

The India VIX slipped 4.12% to 10.93, marking a fresh decline in volatility. The cooling trend suggests consolidation rather than panic-driven selling, with traders refraining from heavy hedging despite the choppy price action.

Market Outlook

Nifty remains boxed in the 24,400–24,800 band, where clustered OI positions reinforce the sideways structure. A decisive breakout above 24,800 could spark short covering, opening the door for a sustained rally toward 25,000. Conversely, a slip below 24,400 would expose the index to deeper corrections.

For now, the “Range Trading” strategy remains prudent, with 24,400 acting as the floor and 24,800 as the ceiling.