NIFTY 50 Breaches 25,500; Eyes 200-DEMA Support Near 25,250

Market Overview: Bears Regain Control

Nifty declined sharply by 288.35 points (-1.12%), closing at 25,424.65 and forming a strong bearish candle. The move signals renewed selling pressure following a brief consolidation phase.

The index faced firm rejection in the 25,600–25,650 supply zone, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 50-DEMA, reinforcing this band as a major resistance area.

Technical Structure: 200-DEMA in Focus

Nifty is now hovering near the 25,250–25,300 support zone, where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and 200-DEMA converge — making it a crucial make-or-break level.

Momentum Indicators

• RSI below 50: Indicates weakening bullish momentum.
• Lower highs structure: Confirms short-term bearish bias.
• Sell-on-rise strategy: Valid unless 25,650 is reclaimed decisively.

Key Levels to Watch

A decisive break below 25,250 could trigger fresh long unwinding and extend the correction toward 24,900.

Derivatives Data: Cautious Positioning

Options data reflects a defensive setup:

• Low PCR at 0.67: Indicates cautious-to-bearish sentiment.
• Heavy Call OI at 25,500–25,800: Strong upside cap.
• Lighter Put buildup near 25,300–25,400: Support appears fragile.

The positioning suggests traders are bracing for potential downside unless a strong reversal unfolds.

Outlook

Nifty is currently trapped between:

• 50-DEMA resistance near 25,650
• 200-DEMA support near 25,250
  
  

A decisive move beyond either level will likely determine the next directional trend. Until then, bias remains negative with rallies expected to face selling pressure.