Nifty and Bank Nifty Show Signs of Measured Rebound Amid Volatility

After a few quiet sessions, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty saw a modest recovery. Traders are now watching to see if this rebound will last or if it is just a brief pause in the ongoing correction.

Nifty Recovers From Lows but Faces Key Resistance

Nifty 50 closed at 24,821.10, up 0.57%, after bouncing from a low of 24,598. The index recovered just above the key support at 24,470, but it still trades below important technical levels.

• 50-day SMA: 25,050
• 20-day EMA: 25,180

These moving averages are acting as resistance and highlight the current short-term weakness.

Technical Indicators:

• RSI: Slight uptick to 42, recovering from oversold territory but still below the neutral 50 mark and under its signal line.
• Supertrend: Continues to act as a resistance barrier, limiting any upside move.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Immediate resistance: 25,000 – 25,100 (aligned with short-term MAs and the median of the recent drop)

• Key support: 24,470 – a breach here could lead to deeper downside.

India VIX remains low at 11.52, hinting that traders may be feeling complacent. If it climbs above 12.50, expect more volatility and a potential shift out of the current range.

Bank Nifty: Mild Bounce, But Trend Still Vulnerable

Bank Nifty finished at 56,222, up 137 points (0.24%), after dipping below its rising trendline. It stayed above the day's low of 55,843 but is still below short-term resistance levels.

🔍 Technical Indicators:

• 20-day EMA: Still trading below it

• 9-day EMA: Yet to be reclaimed

• RSI: Bounced to 45, reflecting modest momentum

• MACD: Remains bearish, pointing to ongoing pressure

📈 Key Levels to Watch:

• Immediate resistance: 56,600 – 56,850

• Support zone: 55,800, followed by 55,600

Bank Nifty has yet to move above 56,600, so the trend stays cautious. Selling on rallies is reasonable for now, but keep an eye out for rebounds near important support levels.

Market Outlook: Calm Before the Storm?

Both indices have seen low volatility recently. In the past, calm periods like this have often led to big moves. The short-term outlook is mixed, and the market looks set for a breakout, but the direction is still uncertain.

Traders should:

• Stay cautious near resistance

• Avoid over-leveraging until confirmation of trend reversal
• Monitor India VIX and RSI closely for early signs of momentum revival

Final Thoughts

The recent bounce in Nifty and Bank Nifty offers some short-term relief, but a true recovery will only come if key resistance levels are cleared. Until then, the market may continue to move sideways or face more corrections.