Nifty Roars Back with Weekly Breakout; Eyes on 26K Next

 Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis: Breakout Resumes Bullish Trend

After consolidating for nearly five weeks, the Nifty 50 index broke free from its sideways trajectory, marking a decisive weekly breakout. The index surged 88.80 points on Friday to close at 25,637.80, posting a weekly gain of 2.09%. This move confirms strong buying interest at lower levels and affirms the bullish structure built over recent weeks.

Nifty has now closed above the previous day’s low for six consecutive sessions, indicating aggressive dip-buying and growing bullish conviction. Traders and investors are treating every intraday decline as an opportunity to accumulate.

 Key Technical Highlights:

• The index is comfortably above the 10-day and 20-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which now act as dynamic support levels.
• RSI on the daily chart stands above 65, showing strong momentum without being overbought.
• On the weekly chart, Nifty has formed a bullish breakout candle, closing above 25,500 and surpassing prior swing highs.

With the index nearing an unfilled gap between 25,640 and 25,740, some resistance may be encountered, but the overall tone remains constructive.

 Support and Resistance Levels

      Zone                                 Significance

25,500–25,400                     Strong support base

25,740–26,000                   Resistance & breakout zone

A sustained move above 25,750 could unlock the next leg of the rally toward the psychological 26,000 mark. Conversely, pullbacks toward 25,400–25,500 will likely attract renewed buying.

 Derivatives Snapshot: Bulls in Command

From the F&O (futures and options) perspective, the market is showing a clear bullish tilt:

• Put writers have aggressively added open interest at the 25,500 strikes (91.57 lakh contracts), reinforcing it as a firm support level.
• Call writers are shifting higher, with 26,000 strikes seeing the highest open interest on the call side (81.18 lakh contracts), making it the next major resistance zone.
• The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has climbed to 1.18, signaling strong put writing activity and a bullish sentiment.
• Max Pain stands at 25,500, suggesting expiry could gravitate toward this level if there's no major news trigger.

 Volatility Update: Calm Before the Climb

• India's VIX fell by 1.61% to 12.38, marking yet another session of low volatility.
• With VIX below the 15 mark, the market remains in a low-risk, bullish environment, typically favorable for positional trades and trend-following setups.

 Market Outlook: Bulls Hold the Edge

The broader market structure remains positive, supported by strong rollovers into the July series and short-covering by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs). Additionally, the breadth of the market is improving, with several heavyweight stocks breaking out and many others hitting 52-week highs.

Key Takeaways:

• The zone between 25,400–25,500 now acts as a demand pocket.
• A breakout above 25,750 could trigger a sharp up-move to 26,000+.
• As long as Nifty trades above 25,400, the "buy on dips" strategy remains valid.
• Technical momentum, falling VIX, and derivatives data all support the bullish bias.

Final Thoughts

The Nifty index has entered a fresh bullish phase with a clear weekly breakout, paving the way for higher targets. With momentum indicators aligned, volatility subdued, and institutional support evident through FPI action and derivatives flow, the market appears poised to challenge the 26,000 mark soon.

Traders should watch the 25,750 resistance in the near term. If this level is breached with volume, 26,000–26,100 could be reached quickly. On the downside, any dip toward 25,500–25,400 should be considered a buying opportunity as long as sentiment remains firm.