Nifty Signals Fatigue at Higher Levels; 25,200–24,900 Range to Dictate Next Move

The Nifty index paused its recent upward momentum, forming two consecutive Shooting Star candlesticks—a classic sign of exhaustion at higher levels. Despite multiple attempts, the index has struggled to surpass its immediate resistance near 25,200. On Wednesday, Nifty slipped 62.15 points to close at 25,046.15, staying marginally above its crucial make-or-break zone. The index has now carved out a broad trading band between 25,200 and 24,900, suggesting that a choppy and range-bound phase is likely to continue until a decisive breakout emerges.

From a technical standpoint, Nifty continues to hover around the psychological 25,000 mark, where multiple layers of support converge. The 20-day and 50-day EMAs, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near 24,900, create a strong confluence zone. This 24,900–24,950 range has evolved into a critical buy-on-dips pocket. On the upside, unless the index decisively clears the 25,200–25,250 resistance band, sellers are likely to maintain control at higher levels.

Nifty’s consecutive closes near the day’s low underline renewed selling pressure, while momentum indicators reflect a neutral undertone. The RSI continues to hover slightly above 50, indicating a sideways bias. The 24,900–25,000 zone will act as a key litmus test, coinciding with the Fibonacci retracement zone. Resistance remains firm at 25,200–25,250, while solid support is anchored between 24,900 and 24,950.

Derivatives Snapshot

The derivatives setup signals growing caution among traders. For the second consecutive session, aggressive call writing outpaced put writing. A substantial open interest build-up of 1.23 crore contracts at the 25,200 strike highlights this level as a formidable resistance zone. Meanwhile, heavy put open interest of 85.75 lakh contracts at the 25,000 strike reinforces strong support at that level.

The shift of call positions toward lower strikes, alongside steady put additions near current levels, reflects a sideways bias. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) declined further to 0.63, indicating a mildly bearish sentiment in the derivatives segment.

Volatility Check

The India VIX rose 2.61% on Wednesday, extending its rebound from historically low levels. The uptick suggests that traders are adopting protective hedging strategies amid rising uncertainty, pointing to heightened caution in the near term.

Market Outlook

The Nifty index is showing visible signs of fatigue at higher levels, with two consecutive Shooting Star formations confirming persistent selling pressure. Wednesday’s decline broke the recent winning streak, and a close below the previous day’s low signals a potential pause in bullish momentum.

The 25,000 mark has now emerged as a pivotal battleground for both bulls and bears. A decisive move below 25,000 could validate further downside pressure and point toward a false bullish breakout. Conversely, heavy call writing around 25,200–25,250 implies that the upside remains capped in the near term.

As long as Nifty holds above 24,900–24,950, buyers are expected to defend lower levels. A breakout above 25,200, however, could reignite buying interest and open the path for a move toward 25,500. Until such confirmation, the sideways-to-range-bound outlook remains dominant.

Key Technical Levels