The Nifty index navigated a highly volatile session ahead of the Bihar election outcome but ended the day with a marginal gain, marking its fourth consecutive positive close. The index’s ability to hold above the previous session’s low highlights improving sentiment and steady accumulation at lower levels, despite intermittent selling near higher zones.
While Nifty faced a sharp rejection near the 26,000 mark, reaffirming it as a key resistance level, the index has remained stable above the 25,800–25,700 zone, an area supported by a bullish price gap that remains a crucial cushion for buyers.
Daily Market Performance
On Thursday, the Nifty index closed at 25,879.15, up by 3.35 points, forming an indecisive Doji candlestick on the daily chart. This formation reflects investor caution ahead of the major political and economic event.
However, the index’s sustained trade above last week’s high strengthens its technical posture, indicating that buyers are gradually regaining control of the market trend.
Technical View: Range-Bound but Bullish Bias Intact
From a technical standpoint, the Doji candle pattern indicates indecision among traders. Yet, the broader chart setup remains positive as Nifty trades comfortably above both its 10-day and 20-day exponential moving averages (DEMA).
These averages, which earlier served as resistance, have now become dynamic support zones, bolstering confidence among short-term traders. Additionally, Nifty’s continued hold above the 25,700–25,780 gap-support range reaffirms the ongoing bullish momentum.
Key Technical Levels
- Immediate Support: 25,750–25,650
- Immediate Resistance: 25,950–26,000
- Momentum Indicator (RSI): Above 60, showing strong momentum
- MACD: Neutral, suggesting consolidation within a positive setup
As long as the index sustains above 25,700–25,650, the buy-on-dips strategy remains favourable. Conversely, a decisive close below 25,750 could invite short-term weakness and renewed caution.
A strong breakout above 26,000 would likely trigger momentum-driven buying, paving the way for further upside in the near term.
Derivatives Snapshot
The derivatives data reflect a mildly bullish undertone in the market.
- Put writers have added substantial positions at nearby strikes, particularly around 25,800, reinforcing it as a strong support base.
- Call writers are active at higher levels, especially near 26,000, which acts as an immediate resistance zone.
A notable open interest (OI) buildup of 95.97 lakh contracts at the 26,000 call strike underscores a firm resistance ceiling, while the 72.05 lakh contracts at the 25,800 put strike highlight a solid demand zone below.
Put-Call Ratio (PCR):
The PCR remains within the 1.04–1.34 range, indicating a bullish bias and suggesting that traders are holding long positions with growing confidence.
The simultaneous buildup of both call and put writing implies a balanced yet positive outlook, pointing toward a phase of range-bound consolidation with an upward tilt.
Market Outlook: Consolidation With Positive Bias
The Nifty index has now carved out a trading corridor between 25,750 and 26,000, and a decisive breakout on either side could define the next directional move.
Nifty’s continued trade above major moving averages, along with the conversion of prior resistance zones into new support, reinforces the short-term bullish narrative.
However, persistent foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows across both cash and derivatives segments over the past ten sessions warrant some caution.
While call writers remain firm at higher strike prices, aggressive put additions at lower levels point to a tactical battle between bulls and bears, leaving the short-term outlook cautiously optimistic but range-bound.
What to Watch Next
- A breakout above 26,000 could ignite a fresh rally.
- A breach below 25,700 may trigger short-term weakness.
- Traders should adopt a disciplined, event-driven approach, focusing on breakouts beyond this consolidation range for directional clarity.
Conclusion
Despite heightened volatility, Nifty’s resilience above the 25,700 mark continues to inspire confidence among market participants. The index remains in a short-term uptrend, supported by a solid technical footing and sustained accumulation at lower levels.
Until a decisive breakout emerges, the market is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias, favouring selective buying opportunities on dips — especially near support zones of 25,750–25,700.
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