Nifty Struggles Below 25,900 Resistance; PCR Uptick Signals Cautious Optimism Before Expiry

The Nifty index ended the session marginally higher at 25,763.35, gaining 0.16%, after witnessing a mild rebound from lower levels. Despite holding above its key support zone near 25,740, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, the index continues to face strong resistance around 25,900, keeping the broader market range-bound.

Technical Overview: Nifty Consolidates Within Narrow Range

On the daily chart, Nifty formed a small-bodied candle, signaling indecision among traders following the recent retracement phase. The index remains confined within a descending channel, facing persistent supply pressure near 25,900.

On the hourly timeframe, Nifty has shown a mild rebound from the lower boundary of the falling channel, suggesting that a short-term pullback could be on the cards before a decisive breakout unfolds. The index currently oscillates between its 10-day and 20-day exponential moving averages (DEMA), hinting at choppy and volatile movements ahead of the weekly expiry.

Key Technical Levels

• Support Zones: 25,740 → 25,700 → 25,600
  
  
• Resistance Zones: 25,900 → 26,000
  
  
• Trend Bias: Neutral-to-Positive
  
  

The price structure indicates that 25,700 is acting as a strong demand zone, while the 25,900–26,000 region continues to cap upside momentum. A decisive breakout beyond these levels will likely determine the next directional move.

Derivatives Snapshot: PCR Rise Reflects Stabilizing Sentiment

The derivatives data paints a picture of cautious optimism ahead of expiry. The 26,000 call strike continues to hold the highest open interest (OI), highlighting it as a major resistance level, while the 25,700 put strike has seen notable additions, confirming it as a firm support base.

This OI configuration defines a short-term trading range of 25,700–26,000 for Nifty.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has risen to 0.65 from 0.49, indicating that traders are turning mildly bullish after recent weakness. The increase in put writing activity reflects confidence among participants that support levels are likely to hold during expiry-led volatility.

Volatility Check: India VIX Rises But Remains Controlled

The India VIX, which measures market volatility, climbed 4.28% to 12.67. While still at relatively low levels, a sustained move above 13 could trigger short-term volatility spikes, leading to wider index swings in upcoming sessions. Traders should stay alert for sharp intraday movements, especially as derivative contracts approach expiry.

Market Outlook: Consolidation With Mild Upside Bias

Momentum indicators show a steadying trend. The daily RSI (14) is hovering near 59, having cooled off from the overbought territory, signaling neutral momentum rather than weakness.

As long as Nifty sustains above 25,650–25,600, the bias remains mildly positive, and a rebound toward 25,900–26,000 remains likely. On the downside, a decisive break below 25,600 could invite deeper profit booking and extend the consolidation phase.

Key Highlights

• Nifty Close: 25,763.35 (+0.16%)
  
  
• Immediate Support: 25,740 – 25,700
  
  
• Key Resistance: 25,900 – 26,000
  
  
• Put-Call Ratio (PCR): 0.65 (up from 0.49)
  
  
• India VIX: 12.67 (+4.28%)
  
  
• Market Bias: Cautiously Positive
  

Key Takeaways

• Nifty trades within a narrow 25,700–26,000 band.
  
  
• PCR rise signals stabilizing sentiment ahead of expiry.
  
  
• Volatility remains low but could increase if VIX crosses 13.
  
  
• Traders should adopt a range-trading approach with a focus on support-based buying and resistance-based profit-taking.