Nifty Stuck in a Range: Support Holds Firm, But Momentum Lacks Spark

Despite a positive gap-up start, the Nifty 50 couldn’t hold on to early gains, giving up strength through the session to finish just below the 25,100 mark. The market remains trapped in a narrow trading band, reflecting a lack of conviction from both bulls and bears. For now, it's a textbook case of consolidation, with no clear signs of a breakout or breakdown.

Price Action Snapshot: Holding the Line, But Facing Headwinds

Nifty ended the day slightly lower by 29.80 points at 25,060.90, yet crucially stayed above the 25,000 psychological level. The index continues to swing within the broader 24,900–25,300 range, where every bounce is met with supply, and every dip finds support.

• Support Zone: The 50-day EMA, currently around 24,945, has acted as a solid cushion over the past few sessions. This level remains a key support area for bulls looking to defend ground.
  
  
• Resistance Zone: On the flip side, both the 10-day and 20-day EMAs, hovering near 25,200, continue to cap upside moves. The cluster between 25,200–25,320 is now emerging as a key barrier.
  
  
• Momentum Check: The RSI continues to stay below the neutral 50 level — a clear sign that bullish momentum is missing. Until this gauge ticks higher, strength may remain elusive.
  
  

Derivatives Signals: Mild Bearish Bias, But No Panic

A glance at the derivatives data confirms the market’s indecisive tone.

• Call Writing at 25,100 has picked up sharply, with open interest hitting 1.30 crore contracts. This makes it a strong resistance level in the near term.
  
  
• Put Writing at 25,000 stands tall at 87.83 lakh contracts, reinforcing it as a floor for now.
  
  
• The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) slipped from 0.86 to 0.70, indicating a rise in call writing and reflecting cautious sentiment.
  
  
• Max Pain has drifted lower to 25,100, suggesting expiry might hover around this zone — consistent with the ongoing sideways action.
  
  

Volatility Says It All: Calm But Not Complacent

The India VIX fell over 4% to 10.75, staying well below its comfort threshold of 13. This subdued volatility suggests that while there’s intraday pressure, there’s no real panic. Traders appear to be playing a waiting game, opting for patience over urgency.

What’s Next? Watch These Levels Closely

Until a decisive move unfolds, Nifty is likely to trade listlessly within the current band. Here’s what to track:

• Key Support: 24,900–24,945 (50-day EMA zone)
  
  
• Resistance Area: 25,200–25,320 (converging short-term EMAs)
  
  
• Bullish Trigger: A close above 25,250–25,300 with strong volume may revive positive momentum
  
  
• Bearish Risk: A sustained move below 24,800 could open the door to deeper downside
  
  

Strategy for Traders: Wait, Watch, and Be Nimble

• Avoid aggressive longs until Nifty convincingly clears the 25,250–25,300 range.
  
  
• Buy-on-dips can be considered around 24,900–25,000, but with tight stop-losses.
  
  
• Shorts should be selective, ideally around the 25,200 resistance zone if signs of exhaustion emerge.
  
  
• Low-volatility setups may offer short-term scalping opportunities, but position sizing is key.