After several attempts to scale higher, the Nifty 50 index remains trapped in a narrow band as indecision continues to dominate investor sentiment. On June 24, 2025, the Nifty ended with a modest gain of 72.45 points, closing at 25,044.35, yet again failing to decisively cross the critical 25,200–25,250 resistance zone.
Despite early gains in the session, persistent selling at higher levels forced the index to retreat, forming a bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow—a classic sign of supply pressure near a resistance level.
Technical View: What Charts Are Telling Us
While the index hasn’t broken out yet, the structure remains constructive, supported by key moving averages and demand zones.
Key Technical Highlights:
- Resistance: The zone between 25,200 and 25,250 remains the biggest hurdle. A close above 25,250 is essential to initiate a sustainable uptrend.
- Support: The 24,750–24,700 area acts as a strong demand zone, consistently absorbing selling pressure.
- Moving Averages: Nifty continues to hold above the 10-day and 20-day exponential moving averages (DEMA), lending support to the bullish undertone.
- Candlestick Pattern: A bearish candle with an upper shadow highlights sellers’ dominance near swing highs.
- RSI Indicator: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, indicating positive momentum, although not strong enough to confirm a breakout.
Until we see a decisive close above 25,250, the index is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, oscillating between its support and resistance zones.
Derivatives Snapshot: What the Options Data Suggests
The derivatives market reflects a cautiously optimistic stance, with clear signs of both defense and restraint:
- Put Writers: Aggressively defending 25,000 with over 1.05 crore contracts, showing confidence in the current floor.
- Call Writers: Active around 25,200, building over 1.13 crore contracts, keeping a lid on immediate upside.
- Put-Call Ratio (PCR): Dipped to 0.80 from 1.01—a shift toward call writing and a mildly bearish near-term view.
- Max Pain Point: Positioned at 24,800, acting as a gravitational pull as expiry nears.
The balance of power remains split, with traders eyeing a clear breakout before committing to larger directional bets.
India VIX Update: Calm Prevails
The India VIX dropped another 2.88%, settling at 13.64. This sustained sub-15 level:
- Reflects calm sentiment in the broader market
- Suggests investor confidence remains intact
- Typically supports upward consolidation.
Low VIX levels usually indicate reduced fear and can act as a tailwind for range expansion when supported by price action.
Market Outlook: Tug-of-War Continues
The current setup reflects a classic market tug-of-war, with bulls defending support levels and bears dominating resistance levels. Until a breakout above 25,250, the trend is likely to remain sideways to mildly bullish.
Key Triggers to Watch:
- Breakout Above 25,250: Likely to trigger short-covering and propel the index toward 25,400–25,500.
- Holding 24,700 Support: As long as this zone holds, buy-on-dips remains the favored strategy.
- Failure Below 24,700: This would signal a breakdown and invite more aggressive selling.
Summary: Nifty’s Battle Between Bulls & Bears
Aspect Details
Current Level 25,044.35
Key Resistance 25,200–25,250
Key Support 24,700–24,750
RSI Above 50 – positive but non-committal
Max Pain (Options) 24,800
Put-Call Ratio (PCR) 0.80 – mildly bearish
India VIX 13.64 – low volatility
Breakout Trigger Close above 25,250
Breakdown Trigger Breach of 24,700
Final Word
Despite the range-bound movement, the underlying trend for Nifty remains constructive. Until key support levels are violated, dips are likely to be bought into. A close above 25,250 will act as a technical catalyst, opening the doors to a fresh upside toward 25,400–25,500.
Investors and traders should remain vigilant for a potential volatility breakout and closely monitor price behavior around key zones. The next move could be sharp—direction depends on who breaks first: support or resistance.
Easy & quick
Leave A Comment?