Nifty Wobbles Near Support as Bears Tighten Grip

Indian equity benchmarks witnessed another session of unease as the Nifty 50 closed at 24,574.20, down 0.31%, signaling continued bearish sentiment amid weak technical signals. The index breached its previous session’s low, carving a bearish candle on the daily chart, and reinforcing the idea that selling pressure remains dominant near short-term support zones.

 Nifty: Technical Breakdown Signals Bearish Continuation

• On the hourly chart, Nifty maintains a well-defined downward structure marked by lower highs and lower lows.
  
  
• Repeated failure to reclaim the VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) suggests persistent intraday resistance.
  
  
• Short-term moving averages, such as the 9-EMA and 20-EMA, have flipped into resistance levels. Their growing divergence further signals an intensifying trend.
  
  
• The 100-EMA, currently hovering near 24,450, is approaching fast and could act as an immediate support zone if the decline accelerates.
  
  

Momentum Indicators:

• The RSI remains below 40, showing no signs of revival in buying strength.
  
  
• The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 24,750 is now a critical hurdle. A decisive close above it, sustained for at least two sessions, is necessary to hint at a potential recovery.
  
  

Support and Resistance Levels:

• Immediate support: 24,450
  
  
• Breakdown trigger: 24,378
  
  
• Upside hurdle: 24,750 (Fibonacci level)
  
  

The advance-decline ratio continues to deteriorate, signaling lackluster breadth and cautious participation even during minor rallies — a classic hallmark of a vulnerable market.

Nifty Bank: Teetering on Key Swing Support

While the broader market faltered, Nifty Bank ended marginally in the green, closing at 55,411.15 (up 0.09%). Despite the positive close, the price action was weak, forming a small-bodied candle within a tight range — typical of indecision near support zones.

• The index remains under pressure, hovering close to the swing low of 55,149 (from June 13), a potential make-or-break level.
  
  
• The broader structure continues to unfold within a parallel rising channel, but price is now testing the lower band, threatening a channel breakdown.
  
  
• Multiple moving averages paint a bearish picture:
  
  
  • A bearish crossover has been confirmed with the 9-EMA and 20-EMA both slipping below the 50-EMA.
    
    

Momentum Indicators:

• RSI remains weak at 37, though it is approaching the lower trendline, where past rebounds have occurred. However, no bullish divergence is present yet.
  
  
• MACD shows continued downside pressure, with deepening red histogram bars — pointing to bearish momentum persisting.
  
  

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: 55,000 (psychological level), followed by 53,800
  
  
• Resistance: 56,000 (moving average cluster)
  
  

Unless a strong reversal emerges from the channel’s lower boundary — ideally accompanied by rising volume and bullish confirmation — the path of least resistance remains downward, with pullbacks likely to be sold into.

 Final Thoughts: Sentiment Still Cautious

The broader market remains under the firm grip of bears, as both Nifty and Nifty Bank struggle to find reliable support. With technical structures deteriorating and momentum indicators staying muted, traders are advised to remain cautious.

Until clear bullish signals emerge — such as a price breakout above resistance levels, RSI divergence, or institutional buying patterns — the dominant trend remains negative.