Strong Base at 24,600 Boosts Nifty; Momentum Hinges on 25,000

The Indian equity market closed the first week of October on a positive note, with the Nifty 50 index posting back-to-back gains and reinforcing signs of a reversal. On Friday, the index advanced 57.95 points to end at 24,894.25, managing to defend its key supports and reigniting bullish sentiment.

The big question now: can Nifty cross the psychological 25,000 mark to unleash the next leg of the rally?

Technical Overview: Key Levels in Play

The Nifty has been consistently respecting its immediate support zone around 24,500–24,600, which now stands as a firm base for traders. Resistance, however, is stacked at the 24,900–25,000 band, where multiple technical hurdles converge:

• The 20-day and 50-day EMAs are hovering near this zone.
  
  
• The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the recent downswing lies close to 24,900.
  
  
• Sellers are expected to defend positions unless the index clears this confluence zone decisively.
  
  

On the downside, 24,600–24,700 has emerged as a strong “buy-on-dips” area, making it a critical buffer for bulls.

 Takeaway: Unless Nifty breaks above 25,000, expect a wider trading band between 24,600–25,000 in the near term.

Momentum Indicators Turning Positive

The market’s undertone has improved significantly:

• The RSI has bounced back from oversold levels to reclaim 45, signaling fading bearish pressure.
  
  
• Two consecutive sessions of closing near the day’s highs point to a renewed bullish undertone.
  
  
• The 0.50 Fibonacci retracement around 25,000 remains the real test, beyond which momentum could accelerate.
  

Derivatives Snapshot: Bulls Gaining Grip

The derivatives market reflects growing optimism:

• Aggressive put writing dominated for the second straight session, a sign of rising confidence.
  
  
• Heavy put open interest (1.55 crore contracts) at 24,800 signals firm downside protection.
  
  
• The 25,000 strike has seen a sizeable build-up of 1.34 crore contracts, reinforcing it as the major resistance zone.
  
  
• The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) held steady at 1.23, keeping undertones positive.
  
  

This positioning indicates that while 25,000 remains a stiff hurdle, the downside is increasingly well-guarded.

Volatility Update

Market volatility has cooled further:

• The India VIX slipped 2.21% on Friday, marking an 11.95% weekly decline.
  
  
• Such a steep drop indicates easing fear, though traders continue to keep protective hedges active given the rebound from historically low volatility levels.
  

Market Outlook: The Road Ahead

The revival in FPI buying, coupled with strong put writing near current levels, has brought optimism back into the market. The immediate focus now is on the 25,000 mark, which remains the crucial battleground for bulls and bears alike.

• Support zones: 24,600–24,700 remain intact and strong.
  
  
• Resistance zones: 24,900–25,000 remain the key challenge.
  
  
• Upside target: A breakout above 25,000 could open the path toward 25,200, shifting the outlook to sideways-to-bullish.
  
  

 Final Word: As long as Nifty sustains above 24,600–24,700, the short-term bias stays with the bulls. But only a decisive close above 25,000 will confirm a trend reversal and pave the way for the next phase of the rally.