Nifty’s Next Move: Bounce or Breakdown?

The Indian stock markets ended the day on a cautious note, with the Nifty closing at 24,971.90, down 0.56%. While the index didn’t see any major breakdown, it continues to remain stuck in a sideways phase, frustrating traders looking for a clearer trend.

For over a week now, Nifty has been confined to a narrow range between 24,700 and 25,200. Every time it inches closer to the top end of this band, sellers emerge. And when it dips, buying support kicks in. This lack of follow-through reflects the market’s current mood: hopeful yet hesitant.

Nifty’s Technical Snapshot: No Clear Winner Yet

From a technical perspective, today’s price action didn’t offer much clarity. The index faced resistance near the upper Bollinger Band, a signal that sellers are defending higher levels.

Momentum indicators echo the indecision:

• The RSI is hovering around 55, a neutral reading that doesn’t hint at strong momentum in either direction.
• MACD remains in the red, and the histogram shows no signs of strength, suggesting the recent up move lacks conviction.
• Still, Nifty is holding above its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, both of which are gradually sloping upward—offering some comfort to the bulls.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Upside breakout zone: Above 25,225, a close here could ignite fresh buying interest.
• Downside risk: If the index falls below 24,700, it may lose momentum and enter a deeper correction.

Until one of these levels gives way, expect a sideways drift with pockets of volatility.

Bank Nifty: Taking a Breather, But Still Strong Underneath

Bank Nifty ended the day at 56,059.35, down by 0.34%, marking a pause after a solid rally in recent sessions. Just like the Nifty, it too is trading in a tight band—between 55,500 and 56,330.

Today’s candle showed signs of indecision, with neither buyers nor sellers exerting a strong push. But structurally, the setup still leans bullish.

Here’s why:

• The RSI sits at 55, indicating a neutral stance.
• On the hourly chart, the middle Bollinger Band is acting as short-term support.
• More importantly, the index is trading above both its 20-EMA and 50-EMA, both of which are trending upward—a positive sign.

What Should Traders Expect?

For Nifty:

• Breakout Watch: A push above 25,225 could open the door to a rally.
• Support Test: A break below 24,700 could signal weakness.
• Until then, it's likely to move sideways, with a mild bullish tilt as long as 24,700 holds.

For Bank Nifty:

• Fresh Upside: A close above 56,400 could take it toward 57,000 and beyond.
• Risk Below: Slipping under 55,500 might drag it lower to around 55,100.
• As long as 55,500 holds, dips can still be viewed as buying opportunities.

Final Take: Range-Bound but Resilient

Neither bulls nor bears appear to have a strong grip on the market at the moment. What we’re seeing is a market in waiting—waiting for a breakout, waiting for clarity, and perhaps waiting for fresh triggers.

However, that doesn’t mean there are no opportunities.

For now, the best approach is to respect the range. Let the market show its hand. Trade light, manage your risk, and stay alert for any breakout or breakdown that could shift the narrative.