After several sessions of indecision and range-bound trade, the Nifty 50 index has finally broken free—marking a firm shift in the trend and reinstating its bullish momentum. On the monthly expiry day, the index posted a robust gain of 304.25 points, ending at 25,549.00 and closing convincingly above the crucial 25,500 resistance mark.
Nifty Technical Overview: Breakout Confirms Trend Shift
Nifty’s breakout has been backed by strong price action, volume, and momentum, signaling more than just a temporary rally.
- The index has now formed higher lows for four consecutive sessions, a textbook bullish pattern.
- The recent consolidation range has been breached to the upside, converting the previous swing high into a solid support zone.
- Blue-chip and frontline stocks have also confirmed participation, crossing key resistance levels—adding breadth to the rally.
The Nifty remains well-supported by its 10-day and 20-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), both of which are sloping upward. This shows consistent buying on dips and validates the bullish structure.
On the daily chart, a strong bullish candle has formed and closed above the 25,500 mark. A move above today's high could trigger further momentum, potentially driving the index toward 25,750 in the near term.
Key Levels to Watch
Support Zone Resistance Zone
25,200 – 25,300 25,750 – 26,000
Psychological: 25,000 All-Time High Resistance: 26,000
- Immediate Support: 25,200–25,300 (prior resistance turned support)
- Major Support: 25,000 (psychological and EMA zone)
- Immediate Upside Target: 25,750
- Major Resistance: 26,000 (heaviest call OI)
Derivatives Snapshot: Bullish Bias Dominates
The F&O data paints a highly optimistic picture:
- Put Writers are adding aggressively at 25,500, with 52.77 lakh contracts—a sign of strong confidence in this level.
- On the Call side, the highest open interest is at 26,000 (50.64 lakh contracts), indicating it is the next major resistance.
- The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has risen to 1.20, up from 1.05, indicating increased put writing and a distinctly bullish sentiment.
- Max Pain rests at 25,400, hinting at a gravitational pull toward this level in the near term.
This aggressive positioning by option sellers is a vote of confidence in the index's ability to maintain its current level or inch higher.
Volatility Insight: VIX Falls Further
India's VIX dropped 2.87% to 12.59. Sustained low volatility below the 15-mark reflects:
- Decreased market fear
- Rising investor confidence
- Ideal conditions for trend continuation
Such a calm volatility backdrop typically favors long-side trades and allows rallies to develop with minimal disruption.
Market Outlook: Buy on Dips as Trend Strengthens
With Nifty closing strongly on the monthly expiry, rollovers into July appear robust, further backing the strength of the breakout.
Technically, the rally is underpinned by:
- Higher lows on daily charts
- A decisive close above resistance
- Bullish candlestick confirmation
- Momentum indicators like RSI crossing 65
As long as the index holds above the 25,200–25,300 support zone, a buy-on-dips strategy remains favored. On the upside, a breakout above 25,750 could open the gates to challenge the 26,000 mark in the coming sessions.
Final Takeaway
The Nifty has not only broken out—it has shifted sentiment, drawn fresh long positions, and reaffirmed its bullish structure across technical and derivative indicators. With strong support, rising momentum, and cooling volatility, the stage is set for the next leg of growth.Until then, every dip near the 25,000–25,300 range is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity by traders.
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