Nifty Stuck in Neutral: 25,000 Holds as Support, 25,350 Remains a Stiff Resistance

The Nifty index continues to tread water, stuck in a narrow range as traders await a directional breakout. Thursday's 100-point decline to 25,111.45 underscores the market's ongoing indecision and lack of momentum, with bulls and bears locked in a stalemate.

Range-Bound Action Persists

Over the last four sessions, Nifty has failed to sustain any upside, oscillating within the previous two-day trading range. This sideways movement reflects a market in consolidation mode, with no immediate trigger in sight to fuel a breakout in either direction.

• Support: Psychological and technical support remains strong at 25,000, coinciding with the 50-day simple moving average.
• Resistance: The zone between 25,250 and 25,350 has emerged as a persistent supply area, repeatedly capping intraday rallies.
• Moving Averages: Nifty continues to trade below both the 10-day and 20-day EMAs, which are currently clustered near 25,250, indicating sustained selling pressure on bounces.

Technical Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Hovering around 50, the RSI signals a lack of conviction from either bulls or bears.
• MACD: Momentum continues to favor the downside, though without aggressive bearish follow-through.

Derivatives Snapshot

The derivatives data support the narrative of a market under mild stress, with clear signs of bearish bias:

• Call Writers are aggressively defending the 25,200 strike, which holds the highest open interest at 57.57 lakh contracts, making it a critical ceiling.
• Put Writers, on the other hand, are displaying limited confidence, though the 25,000 strike has seen a respectable 34.01 lakh contracts of put OI, offering a strong floor.
• Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has slipped from 0.80 to 0.69, reflecting aggressive call writing and diminishing bullish expectations.
• Max Pain: The level has shifted down to 25,150, indicating a high chance of expiry gravitating around this point, further confirming the current sideways bias.

Volatility & Sentiment

• India VIX remains subdued at 11.24, reflecting a market lacking fear but also absent of enthusiasm. The low volatility reinforces the view of controlled consolidation rather than panic-driven moves.
• Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continue to maintain a strong short bias, with the FPI long-short ratio now below 20%, suggesting institutional skepticism toward any near-term rally.

Market Outlook: No Breakout, No Trend

Unless Nifty closes decisively above 25,350, the broader trend is expected to stay range-bound between 25,000 and 25,350. Every intraday bounce is currently meeting with resistance, while downside breaks are being cushioned by firm support near 25,000.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: 25,000, then 24,900
• Resistance: 25,250–25,350
• Breakout Trigger: Close above 25,350
• Breakdown Trigger: Close below 25,000

With RSI and MACD offering no strong signals, and FPI sentiment remaining bearish, a sell-on-rise approach remains prudent in the current environment. Short-term traders should remain cautious, while positional players may wait for a breakout above 25,350 to confirm a bullish trend shift.