Dead Cat Bounce or Recovery? Nifty Awaits Break Above 25,020

The Nifty 50 index extended its rebound on Monday, ending at 24,876.95 (+1.00%), supported by a strong gap-up start. While the index held in positive territory through the day, the session concluded with an inverted hammer candlestick on the daily chart — a sign that the rebound still lacks full conviction.

For now, the move higher appears more like a dead cat bounce than a trend reversal. A decisive confirmation of recovery will only emerge if Nifty sustains a close above 25,020, its key resistance zone.

Technical Outlook: Nifty at a Crossroads

• Support & Resistance Levels
  
  
  • Immediate support: 24,740 (20-SMA)
    
    
  • Next support: 24,600
    
    
  • Key resistance: 25,020 (50-SMA)
    
    
  • Next resistance: 25,180–25,250 zone
    
    
• Indicators:
  
  
  • RSI has recovered to 52, suggesting mild revival in momentum.
    
    
  • MACD histogram has turned marginally positive, but the trend remains unconfirmed.
    
    
  • India VIX cooled to 12.34 (-0.12%), signalling subdued volatility and no signs of panic.
    
    

Unless Nifty convincingly reclaims the 50-day SMA at 25,020, the index may continue oscillating within the current consolidation band.

Nifty Bank: Recovery Attempts Face Resistance

The Bank Nifty index closed at 55,734.90 (+0.71%), after briefly testing highs of 56,156.30 intraday. However, profit booking at higher levels dragged the index lower, leaving behind a long upper shadow on the daily candle — an indication that sellers remain active around resistance zones.

• Support levels: 55,400 and 55,200
  
  
• Resistance cluster: 55,900–56,150 (20-SMA & 50-SMA zone)
  
  

On the daily chart, the index remains capped below its key moving averages. A sustained breakout above 56,150 is essential to unlock further upside. Until then, consolidation may persist.

• RSI: recovered to 47, inching closer to the midline.
  
  
• MACD: remains in a negative crossover, though flattening out, hinting at recovery from oversold conditions.
  
  
• Hourly chart: Shows a breakout attempt from a symmetrical triangle, but lack of follow-through keeps the signal unconfirmed.
  
  

Market Outlook

Both Nifty and Bank Nifty are attempting recovery, but the setups still lack conviction.

• For Nifty, watch 25,020 as the make-or-break level.
  
  
• For Bank Nifty, resistance at 55,900–56,150 remains the key hurdle.
  
  

Unless these levels are taken out decisively, the broader tone remains range-bound with downside risks intact. Traders should stay tactical, focusing on support-resistance plays until clear trend confirmation emerges.

 Key Levels to Track

• Nifty: Support 24,740 / 24,600 | Resistance 25,020 / 25,250
  
  
• Bank Nifty: Support 55,400 / 55,200 | Resistance 55,900 / 56,150