Nifty Finds Grip, Bank Nifty Struggles

Nifty Outlook

The Nifty index managed to close in the green, ending the session at 24,967.75 (+0.39%), after staging a recovery from an intraday low of 24,894.35. The index formed a modest green candle, closing above the mid-point of its daily range—a sign of consolidation with a positive tilt.

On the daily chart, Nifty is sandwiched between key moving averages:

• 20-SMA – holding as immediate support.
  
  
• 50-SMA – capping the upside momentum.
  
  
• 100-SMA – offering additional downside protection.
  
  

A close above the 50-SMA remains critical for unlocking further upside momentum.

• Support levels: 24,850 and 24,700
  
  
• Resistance levels: 25,170
  
  

Momentum indicators show improving strength:

• RSI has ticked up to 53, moving into the neutral-to-positive zone.
  
  
• MACD is edging higher, signaling improving trend conditions.
  
  

While the short-term structure looks sideways-to-positive, volatility may pick up if the India VIX (11.76) breaks above 12.50.

Bank Nifty Outlook

In contrast, Bank Nifty continues to struggle, ending nearly flat at 55,139.30 (-0.02%) after oscillating between a high of 55,306.00 and a low of 55,048.40. The index closed near the lower end of its range, forming a small-bodied candle that reflects hesitation following the recent sell-off.

On the daily chart, Bank Nifty remains below all key moving averages, except the 200-SMA—signaling that recovery attempts are being capped at higher levels.

• Immediate support: 54,905 (recent swing low)
  
  
• Next support: 54,600 (aligned with 127.8% Fibonacci extension)
  
  
• Resistance levels: 55,500–55,600
  
  

Momentum remains weak:

• RSI hovers at 40, just above oversold territory.
  
  
• MACD stays bearish with no visible divergence.
  
  

As long as the index remains below short-term averages, the broader trend stays fragile, with risks skewed to the downside.

Market Wrap

While Nifty shows signs of stability, holding above support levels and edging higher with improving momentum, Bank Nifty remains under pressure, struggling to break past its resistance zones. The divergence suggests that broader market resilience will depend heavily on banking stocks finding stability.

For traders:

• Nifty → adopt a buy on dips strategy above 24,850, targeting 25,170.
  
  
• Bank Nifty → maintain a sell on rise stance unless it decisively clears 55,600.
  
  

With volatility muted but hovering near a potential spike, the coming sessions are likely to remain range-bound with sectoral divergences.