Nifty Awaits a Clearer Trend as Momentum Weakens Near Resistance

Indian equity benchmarks ended the session on a cautious note, with Nifty 50 and Nifty Bank struggling to sustain recent recovery attempts. Persistent resistance at higher levels and weakening momentum indicators suggest that markets may remain range-bound in the near term until a decisive breakout or breakdown emerges.

Nifty 50 Technical Outlook: Momentum Slips Below Key Averages

The Nifty 50 closed at 25,942.10, declining 0.38%, as selling pressure resurfaced near the 26,000–26,100 resistance zone. The formation of a weak daily candle reflects renewed supply at elevated levels, preventing the index from extending its recent rebound.

From a technical perspective:

• Nifty has slipped below its 20-day moving average, currently placed near 25,980, signalling a loss of short-term bullish momentum.
• However, the index continues to trade above the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting that volatility remains contained and the broader consolidation range is still intact.
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to around 49, moving below the neutral zone and indicating weakening buying interest.
• The MACD remains skewed to the downside, reinforcing the cautious near-term setup.

Key Support and Resistance Levels for Nifty

The recent pullback has dragged Nifty below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, while the 50% retracement near 25,980 is currently being tested. This zone remains critical for short-term stability.

Important levels to watch:

• Immediate support: 25,980
• Next support: 25,860 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement)
• Immediate resistance: 26,000–26,050
• Major resistance: 26,150 (decisive breakout level)

Unless Nifty manages a sustained close above 26,150, the index is likely to remain stuck in a sideways-to-range-bound phase.

India VIX Signals Rising Volatility

The India VIX climbed 6.23% to 9.72, indicating a pickup in expected volatility. While absolute levels remain relatively low, the uptick suggests that markets could witness sharper intraday moves in the upcoming sessions.

Nifty Bank Outlook: Consolidation Continues with Mild Downside Bias

The Nifty Bank index closed at 58,932.35, down 0.13%, after a subdued session marked by a narrow trading range. The daily candle reflects a mild negative bias, with the index gradually drifting lower after failing to build on recent recovery attempts.

Technically:

• Nifty Bank is trading below the middle Bollinger Band near 59,200, indicating capped upside.
• At the same time, it is holding above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 58,700, suggesting downside is currently protected.
• The RSI near 48 remains below the neutral mark, reflecting limited buying strength.
• The Supertrend support near 58,351 continues to act as a key reference level on the downside.

Nifty Bank Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate resistance: 59,100
• Next resistance: 59,200
• Higher resistance: 59,350 (strong supply zone)
• Key support: 58,700
• Major downside level: 58,350 (Supertrend)

As long as the index remains below 59,200–59,350, rebounds are likely to face selling pressure.

Market Outlook: Range-Bound with a Cautious Bias

Both Nifty and Nifty Bank remain trapped within well-defined ranges, with repeated failures near resistance levels weakening short-term sentiment. Rising volatility, soft momentum indicators, and lack of follow-through buying suggest that markets may continue to consolidate.

A decisive breakout above 26,150 on Nifty or 59,350 on Nifty Bank would be required to restore bullish momentum. Until then, the near-term outlook remains range-bound with a mild downside bias, favouring selective and cautious positioning.