Nifty Breaks Consolidation, Slips Below Key Averages; 25,100–25,000 Turns Make-or-Break Zone

Nifty witnessed a sharp sell-off and ended the session at 25,232.50, down 1.38%, marking a decisive breakdown from its recent consolidation phase. The index formed a strong bearish candle on the daily chart, decisively breaching below the Darvas Box, which signals a clear shift in the short-term trend and reflects aggressive selling pressure emerging from higher levels. The expanding candle range highlights growing volatility and confirms that sellers have regained control after a period of price stability.

Technical Damage Deepens as Nifty Slips Below Key Moving Averages

From a trend perspective, the damage has intensified as Nifty slipped below all major short- and medium-term moving averages, including the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day averages, underscoring a complete loss of near-term trend support. The index is now hovering just above its 200-day moving average near the 25,100 zone, which also aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior up-move.

This convergence of long-term moving average support and a key Fibonacci retracement makes the 25,100–25,000 zone a structurally critical area that will likely dictate the next directional move for the index. Adding to the bearish undertone, the daily Supertrend has flipped into a major overhead resistance, reinforcing the shift in market structure.

Momentum Indicators Signal Rising Downside Pressure

Momentum indicators continue to reflect growing weakness. The daily RSI has slipped sharply toward the 29–30 zone, entering oversold territory but without showing any meaningful signs of reversal so far. Meanwhile, the MACD remains firmly in negative territory, with widening histogram bars suggesting that downside momentum is still accelerating rather than stabilizing. This combination indicates that selling pressure remains dominant despite stretched momentum readings.

Derivatives Market Confirms Bearish Bias

From a derivatives perspective, options data continues to align with the cautious-to-bearish setup. On the Call side, the 25,500 strike has emerged as a strong resistance, where the highest Call writing is visible with open interest of 1.08 crore contracts, indicating aggressive supply and capped upside expectations.

On the Put side, the 25,000 strike has attracted significant Put writing, with open interest of 76.47 lakh contracts, marking it as an immediate support zone. However, given the prevailing price weakness and breakdown in spot markets, this support remains vulnerable and will need strong defense from Put writers to prevent further downside. The Put–Call Ratio (PCR) has slipped sharply to 0.58 from 0.73, reflecting rising Call writing activity and weakening confidence among Put writers.

Outlook: 25,100–25,000 Zone Holds the Key

Looking ahead, the 25,100–25,000 zone remains the most critical support band for Nifty. A decisive breakdown below this region could accelerate selling pressure and open the door for a deeper retracement toward 24,880, and potentially lower levels if momentum intensifies.

On the upside, any pullback or relief rally toward the 25,350–25,450 zone is likely to face stiff resistance, backed by a confluence of technical hurdles and heavy Call writing. Until Nifty manages to reclaim its lost moving averages and attract sustained buying interest, the near-term outlook remains cautious, with volatility-driven moves and sell-on-rise strategies likely to dominate the coming sessions.