Stock Market Today: Nifty Edges Higher as Budget Anticipation Caps Upside; Volatility Likely

Market Recap – Nifty 50

The Nifty 50 edged modestly higher, closing at 25,418.90, up 0.30%, as cautious optimism prevailed ahead of the upcoming Union Budget. The index formed a bullish candle with a long lower wick, signalling that buyers continue to defend lower levels and that short- to medium-term momentum remains constructive, despite restrained upside.

Technically, Nifty is holding above its 10-day EMA, though it continues to trade below the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, highlighting that the ongoing recovery is still corrective in nature. The index remains comfortably above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 25,265, which has emerged as a crucial short-term support following the recent correction.

Higher retracement levels are placed at:

• 25,480 (38.2%)
  
  
• 25,650 (50%)
  

These zones are likely to act as immediate resistance areas.

Structurally, the rebound from recent lows remains confined within a declining channel, with the index currently positioned near the lower end of this range. A sustained move above 25,480–25,500 would be required to signal a breakout and open the door for a gradual move toward higher levels.

Momentum indicators reflect improving but still cautious undertones:

• The RSI has improved to around 43, recovering from oversold territory but remaining below the neutral 50 mark.
  
  
• The DMI setup shows the negative directional line still above the positive line, while the ADX remains elevated near 26, indicating that the broader corrective trend is still active.
  

On the downside, the 25,250–25,200 zone remains the immediate support band to watch.

With India VIX at 13.37 and the Union Budget approaching, higher intraday swings and headline-driven volatility are likely in the near term.

Market Recap – Nifty Bank

The Nifty Bank index outperformed, closing at 59,957.85, up 0.60%, after staging a strong recovery from intraday lows. The index opened at 59,416.25, slipped to a low of 59,339.00, and later rallied to an intraday high of 60,060.70, before settling near the upper end of the day’s range.

The formation of a bullish candle reflects steady buying interest at higher levels, reinforcing the improving short-term structure.

Nifty Bank continues to trade above all major moving averages, with the 20-day EMA placed near 59,420, acting as a reliable short-term cushion.

Momentum indicators support the positive bias:

• The RSI is placed near 56, indicating strengthening momentum.
  
  
• The DMI setup shows the positive directional line above the negative line.
  
  
• The ADX remains around 18, suggesting moderate but stable trend strength.
  

Key levels to monitor:

• Support: 59,650, followed by 59,500
  
  
• Resistance: 60,250, followed by the all-time high at 60,437.35
  

As long as Nifty Bank sustains above 59,400, the short-term outlook remains favourable. However, given proximity to record highs and the Budget event risk, volatility around resistance levels is likely to persist.

Market Outlook

• Nifty 50: Short-term structure remains stable above key supports, but upside is capped unless the index decisively breaks above 25,500. Budget-related uncertainty may keep volatility elevated.
  
  
• Nifty Bank: Relative strength continues, with buy-on-dips sentiment intact above 59,400, though resistance near record highs could trigger short-term consolidation.
  

Traders are advised to remain selective, disciplined, and responsive to volatility, particularly as Budget expectations dominate near-term market behaviour.