Stock Market today: Nifty Records Sharpest Budget Day Fall Since 2020; Volatility Spikes

Market Snapshot: Budget Day Sell-Off Shakes Sentiment

Indian equities witnessed one of the sharpest Budget Day declines in recent years, with the Nifty 50 tumbling 1.96% to close at 24,825.45. The fall marks the steepest Budget Day drawdown post-2020, reflecting heightened nervousness and aggressive profit booking across sectors.

The index opened higher at 25,333.75, briefly touched an intraday high of 25,440.90, but selling pressure intensified sharply through the session, dragging the market to a low of 24,571.75 before settling near day’s lows.

Technical Breakdown: Key Supports Give Way

The sharp decline resulted in a strong bearish candle on the daily chart, signalling sustained selling interest throughout the session. Importantly, Nifty has broken below its previous swing low near 24,587, confirming a breakdown from the recent consolidation phase.

The index is now trading below all key short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating a loss of trend support and weakening market structure.

• RSI continues to slide below the neutral zone, pointing to growing downside momentum
  
  
• MACD remains skewed on the negative side, reinforcing the bearish setup
  
  
• Market breadth stayed weak, with declines outpacing advances
  

Adding to the caution, India VIX surged 10.73% to 15.09, reflecting a sharp rise in near-term uncertainty and expectations of wider market swings.

Key Levels to Watch: Nifty Outlook

On the downside:

• 24,500 emerges as immediate support
  
  
• A stronger base is placed near 24,400
  
  

Given the spike in volatility and breakdown below key levels, Nifty may remain under pressure in the next session, with limited scope for a meaningful rebound unless volatility cools and supports are defended decisively.

Nifty Bank Under Pressure as Budget Triggers Broad-Based Selling

Banking Index Sees Sharp Breakdown

Nifty Bank declined 2.00%, settling at 58,417.20, after failing to sustain near recent highs. The index slipped steadily through the session, forming a strong bearish candle, highlighting persistent selling pressure.

The breakdown has pushed the index below its short- and medium-term moving averages, placing it near the lower end of its recent trading range. However, it continues to hold above the long-term 200-day moving average, which remains a critical medium-term support.

The fall has also resulted in a violation of the rising trendline that had supported prices over the past several weeks, signalling a deterioration in structure.

PSU Banks Drag, Momentum Weakens

Sectorally, the sell-off was led by PSU banks:

• Nifty PSU Bank index plunged 5.57%, significantly underperforming
  
  
• Nifty Private Bank index declined 1.22%
  

Momentum indicators continue to reflect weakness:

• RSI has slipped toward the lower zone, indicating a weakening trend
  
  
• DMI remains negative, with the negative directional line positioned above the positive line
  

Support and Resistance: Nifty Bank Levels

On the downside:

• 58,000 is the immediate support
  
  
• 57,600 is the next key level to watch
  
  

On the upside:

• 58,800–58,900 is likely to act as immediate resistance
  
  
• A stronger hurdle is placed near 59,200
  

Given the breakdown from recent supports and weak participation, Nifty Bank may remain under pressure in the near term, with recovery attempts likely to be shallow and short-lived. Traders should also brace for wider intraday swings amid elevated volatility.