The conversation around Silver inventory on COMEX is getting louder. And for a reason.
In February 2026, something important happened. Registered silver stocks at COMEX slipped below 90 million ounces. That level matters. It changes how the market looks at physical supply versus paper trading.
From where I sit at Samco Securities, this isn’t just another inventory update. It signals a deeper shift in the global silver market.
Let’s break it down in simple terms.
Market Performance: Silver Inventory on COMEX Under Pressure
As of February 20, total Silver inventory on COMEX stood at:
- 366.25 million ounces total inventory
- Down nearly 31% from around 532 million ounces in October 2025
That’s not a small move. That’s a steady and persistent fall.
More importantly:
- Registered silver stocks: 88,191,059.264 ounces
- Eligible silver stocks: 278,065,980.223 ounces
Registered inventory slipping below 90 million ounces is the headline. That number is often considered a cushion for deliveries. Once it thins out, the market takes notice.
Inventories have been falling consistently since October 2025. No sudden one-day event. Just steady outflows.
What Silver Inventory on COMEX Actually Means?
COMEX silver inventory refers to the physical silver stored in CME Group-approved vaults. This metal supports futures contracts.
There are two categories:
1️. Registered Silver
- Has a warrant.
- Available for delivery against futures contracts.
2️. Eligible Silver
- Meets COMEX standards.
- Minimum .999 fineness
- Bar weight between 1,000 to 1,100 troy ounces
- Not currently warranted for delivery.
The difference matters.
If eligible silver is converted into registered, deliverable supply increases. If registered is shifted to eligible, immediate delivery supply reduces.
Right now, the concern revolves around shrinking registered stocks.
The 31% Drop Since October: Why It Matters?
A fall from approximately 532 million ounces to 366.25 million ounces in just a few months signals more metal leaving vaults than entering.
That suggests rising physical demand, particularly outside Western vaults.
The ratio between paper contracts and physical metal widens as inventories fall. And that is where pressure builds.
When physical supply tightens:
- Liquidity can reduce
- Bid-ask spreads can widen
- Price volatility can rise
Silver inventory on COMEX is not just a warehouse number. It directly reflects market stress levels.
The Paper vs Physical Gap
Here’s where things get more interesting.
- COMEX registered silver stocks: ~88 million ounces
- March open interest: ~230 million ounces
That means paper exposure is significantly higher than the deliverable stock.
In fact, open interest exceeds available registered stock by over 400%.
That creates imbalance.
If a large portion of contract holders stand for delivery, pressure rises quickly. The exchange then depends on reclassification of eligible metal or fresh inflows.
Global Inventory Comparison
Silver inventory stress isn’t isolated to COMEX.
Combined inventories across:
- Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE)
- Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)
Are estimated around 700,000 kilograms.
Meanwhile, registered COMEX silver is near 88 million ounces.
This comparison highlights how physical supply pools are tight relative to trading volumes.
And when physical buying accelerates — especially in Asian markets — the gap can widen further.
Why Volatility Has Increased?
Recent price corrections were not driven by weak demand.
Instead, volatility rose due to:
- Margin requirement hikes by CME Group
- Temporary deleveraging
- Forced unwinding of leveraged positions
When margins increase, traders reduce exposure. That often leads to short-term price corrections.
But inventory decline itself reflects structural movement, not just speculative noise.
Shanghai Premium: A Clear Divergence
One data point stands out.
Shanghai silver has been trading at a premium of more than $10 over Western spot prices.
That premium signals stronger physical demand relative to supply in Eastern markets.
When such divergences appear, they highlight regional demand-supply stress.
Silver inventory on COMEX plays directly into this imbalance.
Structural Deficit Theme
Silver continues to see strong industrial usage. Mine expansion remains limited.
Lower registered stocks reduce the cushion available during major delivery months like March.
That doesn’t automatically mean a global supply deficit.
But it tightens short-term liquidity.
And in commodity markets, liquidity tightness often translates to sharper price movements.
How COMEX Can Adjust?
It’s important to understand one thing.
COMEX inventories represent only a portion of global silver supply.
There are built-in mechanisms:
- Eligible metal can be reclassified as registered
- Additional supply may flow in via imports
- Over-the-counter markets can supply liquidity
So falling registered stocks do not automatically mean physical silver is running out worldwide.
It simply means deliverable supply at COMEX is thinner.
Why March Becomes Critical?
March is traditionally a heavy delivery month.
The real risk depends on how much open interest chooses to stand for delivery versus available registered stocks.
If delivery demand rises sharply:
- Premiums may increase
- Liquidity may tighten
- Price volatility could spike
Silver inventory on COMEX will remain the most watched number this month.
Silver Price Movement Context
On MCX, silver is expected to trade in the range of:
- ₹2,50,000 to ₹2,80,000 per kilogram
Elevated open interest combined with delivery demand has intensified volatility.
A wider gap between physical fundamentals and paper exposure keeps the market highly sensitive.
What This Means for the Silver Market?
Let’s summarize what the falling Silver inventory on COMEX really indicates:
- Total inventory down nearly 31% since October 2025
- Registered stocks below 90 million ounces
- Open interest nearly 230 million ounces against ~88 million ounces deliverable
- Shanghai trading at premium of $10+ over Western spot
- Combined Chinese inventories around 700,000 kg
These numbers explain why silver volatility has picked up.
It’s not hype. It’s arithmetic.
When paper contracts expand faster than physical supply, markets react.
Company Insight: The Role of CME Group
CME Group operates COMEX vault systems and oversees margin frameworks.
In response to rising volatility, margin requirements were increased. That triggered temporary price corrections due to position unwinding.
This was more about leverage adjustment than demand collapse.
The core data — silver inventory on COMEX — still shows sustained outflows over months.
The Bigger Picture
This phase reflects:
- Rising physical demand
- Delivery sensitivity
- Margin-driven volatility
- Structural tightness in registered inventory
Silver is in a sensitive zone.
Inventory data is becoming more important than short-term price charts.
And until we see consistent inflows into registered vaults, the pressure narrative around Silver inventory on COMEX is unlikely to fade.
Summary: Why Silver Inventory on COMEX Matters Now?
The headline number is simple.
Registered silver below 90 million ounces.
But beneath that number lies a deeper story:
- A widening paper-to-physical gap
- Higher delivery sensitivity
- Strong industrial demand backdrop
- Regional price divergence
Silver inventory on COMEX is no longer just a weekly data point. It is shaping global market sentiment.
March will test the balance between paper exposure and physical delivery capacity.
And for now, volatility continues.
The market is watching vault numbers more closely than ever
Source: Livemint
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