Stock Market Today: Nifty Defends 200-DMA; Base Near 25,000 Signals Gradual Trend Reversal

Market Recap

The Nifty 50 staged a meaningful rebound from its critical support zone, successfully defending the 200-day moving average (DMA) and gradually shifting the near-term bias in favour of the bulls. A strong base has now formed in the 24,900–25,000 region, which coincides with the 200-DMA and continues to act as the bulls’ final line of defence.

The recovery has been supported by a credible reversal setup and steady follow-through buying, underscoring the resilience of this support zone and increasing the probability of further upside in the coming sessions. Structurally, early signs of a trend reversal are beginning to emerge. The index has been forming higher lows and has managed to close above the previous session’s high for the third consecutive trading day, highlighting sustained short-covering activity.

A decisive breakout above the 25,500 resistance could accelerate short covering and attract fresh buying interest. However, sustaining above the 25,150–25,100 support band remains crucial to preserve durable bullish momentum.

Thursday’s session carried a clear bullish undertone, with intraday declines witnessing sharp buying interest near the support zone. The evolving base formation and early reversal signals suggest that bulls are gradually regaining control. The index ended the session higher by 76.15 points at 25,418.90, reinforcing a buy-on-dips approach.

Technical View

From a technical standpoint, Nifty appears well-positioned for a healthier recovery, with the price structure hinting at a potential breakout from a double-bottom formation after establishing a firm base. The rebound from oversold territory adds further credibility to the ongoing recovery.

A sustained move above 25,500 could add fresh momentum to the rally. Notably, the 25,500 zone—previously a strong demand area—has now turned into a key supply pocket, overlapping with the downward-sloping 20-day EMA. This convergence makes it a critical inflection point for the index.

Momentum indicators suggest easing selling pressure:

• The RSI has moved above 40, indicating a gradual loss of bearish dominance.
  
  
• Price action continues to reflect improving risk appetite on declines.
  

Any corrective dips toward the 25,200–25,100 zone are likely to be viewed as accumulation opportunities, while a clean breakout above 25,500 may intensify buying interest.

Derivatives Snapshot

The derivatives setup reflects a cautious yet improving undertone. Call writers have continued to add fresh positions at at-the-money and nearby strikes, effectively capping immediate upside. Meanwhile, put writers have started building positions at lower strikes, signalling expectations of a range-bound structure with well-defined support levels.

Key observations:

• 25,500 Call OI: ~54.67 lakh contracts, marking it as a strong resistance
  
  
• 25,300 Put OI: ~47.82 lakh contracts, reinforcing it as immediate support
  
  
• Put–Call Ratio (PCR): Rose sharply to 0.97 from 0.82, signalling improving sentiment and a gradual reduction in call-writer dominance
  

Market Outlook

The Nifty is displaying early signs of bullish acceleration, firmly holding above the 200-DMA and building a durable base near 24,900–25,000. Importantly, the index has now closed above its previous session’s high for three consecutive trading days, reflecting a clear revival in buying interest.

A sustained follow-through above 25,500 could pave the way for a sharper short-covering rally. On the downside, declines toward 25,200–25,100 are expected to attract strong buying interest and support accumulation.

As long as these key supports remain intact, buy-on-dips strategies are likely to dominate. Traders are advised to remain selective, disciplined, and cautious while navigating the evolving market structure.