NIFTY 50 Stalls at 200-SMA; IT Weakness Weighs

Market Overview: Long-Term Average in Focus

Nifty ended the session at 25,424.65 (-1.12%), slipping back toward its 200-day SMA near 25,340. The formation of a bearish candle with the open and low at the same level signals sustained selling pressure throughout the session.

Attempts to stabilise near 25,500 faded, and the index now hovers just above its long-term average — a critical inflection zone for the broader trend.

Technical Setup: Short-Term Weakness Emerging

• Lower low on hourly chart: Break in recent recovery structure.
• 10-day & 20-day SMAs: Turning lower; acting as overhead resistance.
• MACD: Sliding toward zero with weakening histogram.
• RSI near 45: Reflects loss of momentum.

The setup suggests caution unless the index reclaims resistance levels quickly.

Key Levels to Watch

A decisive close below 25,300 could open room for further corrective pressure, while only a sustained move above 25,600–25,700 would ease short-term weakness.

NIFTY Bank Holds Firm Despite Mild Profit Booking

Controlled Pullback Near Highs

Nifty Bank closed at 61,047.30 (-0.35%), forming a small bearish candle after hovering near recent highs. The decline was measured rather than aggressive, and the index continues to defend the 61,000 mark.

On the daily chart, it remains comfortably above the 20-day SMA, preserving the broader uptrend. The upper Donchian band near 61,800 remains within reach, indicating consolidation rather than reversal.

Momentum & Structure

• Hourly Chart: Sequence of higher highs intact despite minor pullbacks.
• RSI near 57: Balanced, steady momentum.
• Internal Rotation:
  • NIFTY PSU Bank: +0.29%
  • NIFTY Private Bank: -0.47%

Mixed participation suggests internal rotation rather than broad weakness.

Key Levels to Watch

A decisive close above 61,500 could revive momentum toward fresh highs, while a break below 60,800 may shift the short-term tone to corrective.

Overall Market Takeaway

While Nifty tests its long-term support, Bank Nifty continues to consolidate near highs. The divergence suggests selective sector resilience, but broader market direction will hinge on whether Nifty sustains above the 200-day SMA in the coming sessions.

If you’d like, I can also prepare a sector-wise breakdown (IT vs Banking divergence analysis) or a derivatives positioning update for both indices.